Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch - 04-06December

[Ulrich Rieth]

A s t r o A l e r t
Sun-Earth Alert

Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
http://www.spacew.com

04 December 2004


MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH - 04-06 December

A minor (but vigorous) solar flare was observed on 03 December that will
impact the Earth and enhance levels of geomagnetic and auroral activity. The
disturbance is strongly Earthward directed and has the potential to produce
periods of moderate to brief strong auroral activity when it arrives. It
should arrive in the early UTC hours of 05 December (this is equivalent to
the very late evening hours of 04 December over North America - late Saturday
or early Sunday morning). It should last approximately 12 to 18 hours after
it arrives. The official watch statement is included below.


MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 05:50 UTC, 04 December 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 18:00 UTC (7 pm EST) 04 DECEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 06 DECEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 05 DECEMBER
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 04-06 DECEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 10, 40, 20, 18 (04 - 07 DECEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND PRIOR TO LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW - MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO ILLINOIS
TO OHIO TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO MARYLAND.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

ENGLAND TO NORTHERN BELGIUM TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO
NORTHERN BELARUS TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

An earthward directed coronal mass ejection is expected to increase
levels of auroral activity early in the UTC day of 05 December (very late
evening hours of Saturday night or very early morning hours of Sunday
morning over North America). Activity has the potential to become
sporadically strong over isolated regions. Observations from locations
equatorward of the lines noted above are also possible in isolated regions.
Observers are encouraged to watch the skies over the next few nights for
possible northern lights activity.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
06 December. It will then be allowed to expire. For updated information,
visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of
current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Astroalert **
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