LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH (23:45 UTC 07 Nov 2004)

[Ulrich Rieth]

LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 23:45 UTC 07 November 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 08 NOVEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 08 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 08 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 70, 30, 40, 30 (08 - 11 NOVEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM LOW LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS PERSIST)

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NEVADA TO SOUTHERN UTAH AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
NORTHERN ARIZONA TO SOUTHERN COLORADO AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO TO OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF TEXAS TO
ARKANSAS TO TENNESSEE TO NORTH CAROLINA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

FRANCE TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CZECH REPUBLIC TO CENTRAL POLAND TO
NORTHERN UKRAINE TO SOUTHERN BELARUS TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

NEW ZEALAND TO SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA TO SOUTHERN ARGENTINA TO SOUTHERN CHILE.

SYNOPSIS...

Conditions remain volatile for the production of periods of potentially
strong auroral storm activity. Substantial equatorward movement of the
auroral oval has taken place and may continue to invade the middle latitude
regions over the next several hours. This may provide many low latitude
observers with an opportunity to observe activity over the next 6 to 12
hours.

This watch will remain valid through 15:00 UTC (10 am EST) on
08 November. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Watch **

[Udo, DK5YA]

IPS:

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was High, with
region 696 producing many C-Class events and a X2.0 Class event
at 1545UT. Lasco C3 imagery for the 7th of November is not available
to confirm a CME. An associated proton event is currently in
progress arising from the X2-Class event. Region 696 remains
quite large in sunspot size and retains a level of magnetic compexity
that suggests further C and M-Class events are possible. A shock
front from a CME from the 03Nov or 04Nov was observed and has
resulted in Major Geomagnetic Storm conditons. At 1000UT the
solar wind velocity increased by 50km/s and began to steadily
rise from 430km/s to 500km/s at 1755UT at which it then rose
sharply to be at 700km/s at the time of this report. Simarly
the north south component of the interplanetary magentic field
Bz, indicated the shock arrivals with step impulse changes in
its magnitude of 20nT at 1755UT after which it turned southwards
to be -40nT at the time of this report. The magentometer on the
GOES satellite indicated a probable Geo-synchronous crossing
of the magnetosphere exposing it to the solar wind stream as
seen in its recorded data. There also appears to be another region
significant region approaching the southeast limb that should
roate on disc within the next few days.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0153UT
on 07 Nov, and a possible weak shock was observed in the solar
wind at 0958UT on 07 Nov, and a strong shock was observed in
the solar wind at 1754UT on 07 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Severe Storm Levels

Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 27 2324 4467
Darwin 25 2324 3466
Townsville 30 2325 4467
Learmonth 32 2225 4567
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 35 1324 4477
Hobart 32 1314 3477
Casey(Ant) 34 ---4 3366

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 NOV :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 25

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0000 1111


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 60 Storm levels
09 Nov 50 Storm levels
10 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 7 November
and is current for interval 8-10 November. Geomagnetic activity
was Quiet to Major Storm levels over the last 24 hours.A shock
arival from a CME on 03/04 November has resulted in the current
storm conditions. There is also a proton event curently taking
place from a X2-Class event that occured at 1545UT. Storm conditions
are expected to continue for the next 24-36 hours after which
another shock front arrival could occur if a full halo CME was
produced from the X2-Class event today (LASCO C3 imagery wasnt
available to confirm this).
A weak (33nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1053UT on 07 Nov.