STD: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH (ab 6.11.)

[PeterKuklok]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 06:40 UTC, 05 November 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC (7 pm EST) 06 NOVEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 08 NOVEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 06-07 NOVEMBER
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 06-08 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 12, 30, 40, 20 (05 - 08 NOVEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 24 TO 48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW - MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO ILLINOIS
TO OHIO TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO MARYLAND.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

ENGLAND TO NORTHERN BELGIUM TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO
NORTHERN BELARUS TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

Recent coronal mass ejection activity is expected to increase levels of
auroral activity to levels that should become visible over fairly widespread
middle latitude regions on 06 through 08 November. Additional
Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection activity is expected over the next
several days. Those ejections could be more heavily directed Earthward and
may produce stronger impacts.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EST) on
08 November. It will then be allowed to expire. For updated information,
visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of
current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Watch **


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STD ( http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forumnotes.html )

Updated: 07:20 UTC 05 Nov (1:20 am EDT, 05 Nov)

A series of Earthward-directed coronal mass ejections are in transit to the Earth.
Periods of active to minor (or perhaps briefly major) geomagnetic storming will
be possible as these disturbances arrive over the next 72 hours. The first
disturbance is expected to arrive on 06 November, followed by another
disturbance on 07 and possibly 08 November. An auroral activity watch for
middle latitudes is being issued for this time period (06-08 November).