spacew.com is optimistic :) middle latitude auroral activity

[Marjorie Soto]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 19:30 UTC, 30 October 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 03:00 UTC ON 01 NOVEMBER (1 am EST)
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 03 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: 10:00 UTC, 01 NOV, +/- SEVERAL HOURS

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 01 - 02 NOVEMBER
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 01 - 03 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 10, 30, 40, 15 (31 OCT - 03 NOV)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 36 TO 72 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN
MISSOURI TO ILLINOIS TO INDIANA AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO WEST
VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO MARYLAND.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

EXTREME NORTHERN FRANCE TO BELGIUM TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND
TO CENTRAL BELARUS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

A flurry of eruptive solar events has occurred in the last 24 hours that
could produce periods of moderately strong auroral activity over many middle
latitude regions on 01 and 02 November. There is a chance for some isolated
intervals of locally strong auroral storming over some middle latitude
regions. Unfortunately, the strongly illuminated moon will hamper attempts to
view activity, particularly in the lower mid-latitude regions where auroral
activity may be confined along the horizon. Nevertheless, during the height
of the activity, longer-exposure photographs may reveal activity that the
eyes can't detect. This disturbance is expected to be rather long in
duration, as several coronal mass ejections are expected to reach the Earth
during the period of 01 and 02 November. The complex nature of these events
increases the difficulty of predicting the strength of the storm. Thus, the
lower-latitude line of auroral activity visibility denoted above assumes a
more disturbed and stormy state than what might actually dominate. Expect
activity to remain at least mildly disturbed through the end of the UTC day
of 02 November and possibly extending into 03 November. If additional
eruptive solar activity occurs (and additional activity is expected), the
probability of disturbed conditions extending into 03 November (and possibly
beyond) will increase.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on 03
November. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Watch **

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[Norbert Bläsner, Dresden]

ja vor allem "central Germany"...aber denk mal Wetter ist eh schlecht...

insgesamt waren es wohl mehrer CME's...zwar net die dollsten, aber wir befinden uns ja auch in ner günstigen Zeit was Auroras angeht...
ich werde man das Wetter für Montag Abend checken...

[Ralf Pitscheneder]

Und hier noch die CME-Ankunftsvorhersage vom STD:

Complex Multiple Event #66 - 30 October 2004
Issued: 19:00 UTC, 30 October 2004

SOURCE EVENT

Numerous Energetic Events from Region 10691 on 30 October 2004
Type II: Numerous (6) events ranging from 610 to 1131 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: Complex - Not fully determined

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Up to three shock fronts may arrive at the Earth (see notes).
Estimates below refer to the first shock only (see notes).

Estimated Impact Window: 06:00 UTC on 01 Nov to 17:00 UTC on 01 Nov
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 10:00 UTC on 01 Nov (5:00 am EST on 01 Nov)
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 4-5

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD

EVENT #66 NOTES:

A significant flurry of eruptive activity has occurred in the last 24 hours from Region 10691. Although at least one coronal mass ejection appears to be solidly directed Earthward, it is likely multiple coronal mass ejections have been launched at least partially Earthward. The sequence of events that may occur by the time the disturbances reach the Earth are rich in uncertainty, but what follows is our best current estimate based on independent model results. We expect to observe up to three solar wind shock fronts impact the Earth over the next 36 to 72 hours. The first should be a cannibalized event (a faster shock is expected to overtake a slower one, resulting in a more complex disturbance) arriving perhaps near 10:00 UTC (give or take several hours) on 01 November. A southward turning of the IMF is predicted to initially occur, although the Earth may be near a sector boundary and could complicate what is observed in the sheath region of the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME). The second shock front is predicted to occur sometime perhaps near 21:00 UTC on 01 November (give or take several hours, but with slightly heavier weight on several hours later). This second ICME will be the result of the class X1.2/SF solar flare of 30 October. By the time this second shock arrives, it may have nearly (if not completely) completed the over running of another slower shock front. As a result, the ejecta that interacts with the Earth will probably remain complex. Interestingly, depending on the velocity of the solar wind flow behind this second shock associated with the X1.2 flare event (which is, of course, impossible to accurately determine until it arrives), there is a possibility the third shock front (associated with the major class M5.9 flare event of 30 October) may also arrive at nearly the same time as the X1.2 related shock front. Thus, if the second and third events combine, the Earth may see a space weather storm with greater vigor than expected (and perhaps only two solar wind shock fronts in total). More likely, the second and third disturbances will partially merge, perhaps weakening the strength of the third shock front. In any event, there is fairly high confidence that space weather will become at least mildly disturbed and remain that way for at least 24 to 36 hours. Geomagnetic and auroral storming is expected to be associated with this activity. Planetary K-indices should reach at least 5 (minor storming), and have the potential to briefly top 7 (severe storming).
These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.

Nur die Uhrzeit gefällt mir gar nicht ...

Gruß
Ralf

[Norbert Bläsner, Dresden]

schau mal auf den Wetterbereicht...der ist schlimmer als die Uhrzit...die letzten CME's hatten ja auch erst so 10 Stunden nach eintreffen ihre beste Auswirkungen...aber wie gesagt...bei dem Wetterbericht gibts garantiert auch bei uns PL...allerdings über den Wolken

[Thomas Sävert]

Moin zusammen,

also ich sehe auch noch die Gefahr eines Kannibalen-CME, das hatten wir bei so vielen Flares innerhalb so kurzer Zeit ja schon häufiger.

Ansonsten habt Ihr recht, das Wetter könnte besser sein

Gruß, Thomas Sävert

[Ralf Pitscheneder]

Hallo zusammen,

irgendwie scheint da schon was anzukommen, jedenfalls fängt es an den SAMs schon an zu zucken ...

Wenn es einen SAM-Alarm gibt, sieht man das in Zukunft auch an der Grafik:



Gruß
Ralf

[Norbert Bläsner, Dresden]

naja irgendwo war ja noch in CH ...
@Thomas das mit dem kannibalen CME kann aber auch positiv werden (letztes Jahr) aber das Wetter ist wirklich zu schlecht...bei mir hier im osten wird es deshalb schon daran scheitern...wetter und pl-mäßig ist die Küste wohl chancenreicher...wenn denn was wirksames ankommt...aber so doll sahen die CME's auf lasco net aus...

[Ulrich Rieth]

Hallo!

Ich habe gerade nach dem Wochenende mal wieder die Lage überprüft und auch mal die LASCO Bilder und EPAM Plots angesehen.
Also mir kommt es vor, als sei Cary Oler diesmal doch deutlich übers Ziel hinausgeschossen.
Vor allem bei CMEs, die nur durch ihre Type II Geschwindigkeiten bestimmt sind, wurden bisher immer überschätzt. Und in einem Paper des STD schreibt Cary Oler noch selber, dass im letzten Oktober die Type II Geschwindigkeiten meilenweit neben der Realität lagen und dass man noch immer nicht weiß, was man da eigentlich genau misst.
Auch die Aussage im Watch, mit einem vorhergesagten Ap von 40 in der Spitze ist nicht wirklich berauschten. Für PL in Deutschland sollte da wenigstens eine 80 aber besser noch mehr stehen.
Also irgendwie passt hier einiges nicht zusammen. Ein euphorischer Text und dann diese Datenlage und auch diese mäßige Vorhersage (Ap und auch Schock nur 4-5).
Für mich bleibt da eigentlich nur der Schluss, dass es mal wieder ein nettes Röntgenfeuerwerk gab und vielleicht auch mal wieder ein paar hübsche Ausschläge an den Magnetometern auftreten werden, aber sichtbares PL erscheint mir praktisch unmöglich.
Naja, warten wir mal auf morgen oder besser übermorgen.
Gruß

Ulrich

[Ralf Pitscheneder]

Hallo Ulrich,

1:0 für Dich, zumindest bis jetzt in der ersten Halbzeit !
An der (Schock-)Front herrscht bis jetzt Grabesruhe, passend zu Allerheiligen.

Viele Grüße
Ralf

[Ralf Pitscheneder]

Hallo zusammen,

ist der CME in die Winterstarre verfallen ?

Nach der IMF-Vorhersage des Geophysical Institute / Alaska scheint doch erst morgen etwas bei uns anzukommen:



Oder sehe ich da irgendwas falsch ?
Gestern abend sahen die Vorhersagen jedenfalls noch ganz anders aus:



Gruß
Ralf