MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH (13.10.04)

[André.Müller]

Hi

Das kommt für mich zwar sehr überraschend, aber wer weiß..

André

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 04:30 UTC, 13 October 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 15 OCTOBER

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: N/A

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 13 - 14 OCTOBER
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 13 - 15 OCTOBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 24, 20, 15, 12 (13 - 16 OCTOBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 24 TO 48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN OHIO TO NEW JERSEY.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

ENGLAND TO NORTHERN BELGIUM TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO
NORTHERN BELARUS TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

A coronal hole based disturbance is becoming capable of producing
periods of active to minor geomagnetic and auroral storm activity. Auroral
activity should become sporadically visible over many middle latitude regions
during the next 24 hours. Although no significant activity is anticipated,
some isolated substorms could be rather strong. Thus, middle latitude
observers should be on the lookout for potential activity during the next 24
to 48 hours.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on 15
October. It will then be allowed to expire. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Watch **

[/quote]

[Ralf Pitscheneder]

... und hier die Meldung vom IPS:

SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 04/27
ISSUED AT 13/0617Z OCTOBER 2004
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

The effect of this coronal hole has been
weak so far and it was not expected to
raise the geomagnetic activity to storm
levels, but due to sustained periods
of negative Bz, some stations have started
showing geomagnetic activity at minor storm
levels. This rise in the geomagnetic activity
is not expected to last long unless Bz
continues to remain negative as the solar
wind stream is not very strong. Isolated
periods of active and minor storms levels
may be observed on 13 and 14 October.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FROM 13-14 OCTOBER 2004
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
13 Oct: Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
14 Oct: Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.

Die SAMs juckt es auch schon:



Gruß
Ralf

[Ulrich Rieth]

Hallo!

Das kommt für mich zwar sehr überraschend, aber wer weiß..

Naja, sooo überraschend ist das auch wieder nicht gekommen.
Das coronal hole geisterte ja schon länger durch die Webseiten.
Und der Watch (es ist nur ein Watch, also nix dramatisches) ist ja dann auch pünktlich im Kp=4 Intervall bzw. zu Beginn des Kp=5 Intervall ausgegeben worden.
Naja, da wir lange keinen Kp5 mehr hatten, ist so eine Ankündigung von möglicher Aktivität vor allem in einer günstigen Mondphase sicherlich nicht ganz schlecht.
Gruß

Ulrich

[mike stammler]

jop, SWIM ist schön bunt am blinken

Die live Daten:
http://www.astronomie-seite.de/astro_/p ... d/std.html

Mike

[Udo, DK5YA]

Surprise....die Radio-Aurora reicht (wenn auch schwach) unterdessen bis zu 50° lat. Hier in Aschaffenburg [49°58'54"N 09°07'30"E] sind einige Norddeutsche und schottische Stationen hörbar.

VG
Udo

[Ralf Pitscheneder]

Hallo zusammen,

die SAMs tendieren in Richtung K5 und in Kiruna ist auch ganz nett was los. Hätte ich so heftig nicht erwartet, aber die Jahreszeit ist eben günstig.

Gruß
Ralf

[RainerKracht]

Hallo,

der Ostwind hält die Wolken noch auf Distanz, aber außer gelegentlichen Schnuppen (hier unter UMa) ist hier nix zu sehen...



Gruß, Rainer