(Sammelthread) Polarlicht-Vorwarnungen 2025

[Ingo Rompelberg]

Magst du es mir kurz erklären zu der Grafik?

[Marko Rummelsburg]

https://raumwetter.de/x5-1-flare-1900-k ... 4-warnung/

[Marko Rummelsburg]

CME1 kommt näher

Starker Impact am Solar Orbiter

[Marko Rummelsburg]

Sehr starker Impact Bz -55 nT

[Bernd Pröschold]

Dichte und Speed jetzt im Keller. ACE funktioniert anscheinend nicht mehr richtig - Erinnerungen an Zyklus 23 werden wach.

[Marko Rummelsburg]

Dichte und Speed jetzt im Keller. ACE funktioniert anscheinend nicht mehr richtig - Erinnerungen an Zyklus 23 werden wach.

DSCOVR funktioniert

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind -> Series Tab -> DSCOVR only

[Markus Pfarr]

Hier leider Nebel.........

[Ulrich Rieth]

Moin!

Schaut man sich den Verlauf der Protonen am GOES Satelliten an, könnte gegen 1:30 UTC der zweite CME (unbemerkt von ACE/DSCOVR) angekommen sein.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
Unten GOES PROTON FLUX

Daher denke ich, warten wir jetzt "nur noch" auf den CME vom X5 und ggf. weitere, die aufgrund der komplexen magnetischen Struktur der Sonnenfleckengruppe zuküftig noch ausgeschleudert werden.
Gruß!

Ulrich

[Ulrich Rieth]

Hier der aktuelle PRESTO ALERT:

:Issued: 2025 Nov 12 0736 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A first solar wind shock arrived around 22:15 UTC on 11 November 2025. The solar wind speed jumped from 400 km/s to 500 km/s, and the total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) rose from 5 to 12 nT. This disturbance is associated with the coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 598), following the X1.7 flare (SIDC flare 6002) at 07:35 UTC on 9 November, with an initiation speed of about 720 km/s.

A second solar wind shock arrived shortly after, at 23:45 UTC on 11 November 2025. The solar wind speed jumped up to about 720 km/s, the total interplanetary magnetic field reached 63 nT, and the southward IMF component Bz reached -53 nT. This second shock is associated with coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 598), following the X1.2 flare (SIDC flare 6010) at 09:19 UTC on 10 November, with an initiation speed of about 1300 km/s. The local K index in Belgium reached 7 (Major Geomagnetic Storm) at 00:00 UTC on 12 November and 9 by 02:00 UTC (Extreme Geomagnetic Storm). NOAA Kp was Kp 9 (Extreme Geomagnetic Storm) for the 3-hour interval, from 00:00 to 03:00 UTC on 12 November.

This extreme geomagnetic storm is expected to persist for the next several hours to a day. Moreover, the coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 600), following the X5.1 flare (SIDC flare 6028) at 10:04 UTC on 11 November with an initiation speed of about 1500 km/s, is still en route and expected to arrive early on 13 November 2025. Its arrival may further disturb the solar wind conditions. These CMEs originated from Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274), which remains highly active, so additional strong flares, proton event, and further CMEs remain possible.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
# #
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# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #
# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #
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# Legal notices: #
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

[Sebastian Böttcher]

Das hieße dann ja, das der letzte starke CME "early 13. November" kommt. Das war so nicht abgemacht das wäre ja morgen früh...

Hier der aktuelle PRESTO ALERT:

:Issued: 2025 Nov 12 0736 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A first solar wind shock arrived around 22:15 UTC on 11 November 2025. The solar wind speed jumped from 400 km/s to 500 km/s, and the total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) rose from 5 to 12 nT. This disturbance is associated with the coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 598), following the X1.7 flare (SIDC flare 6002) at 07:35 UTC on 9 November, with an initiation speed of about 720 km/s.

A second solar wind shock arrived shortly after, at 23:45 UTC on 11 November 2025. The solar wind speed jumped up to about 720 km/s, the total interplanetary magnetic field reached 63 nT, and the southward IMF component Bz reached -53 nT. This second shock is associated with coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 598), following the X1.2 flare (SIDC flare 6010) at 09:19 UTC on 10 November, with an initiation speed of about 1300 km/s. The local K index in Belgium reached 7 (Major Geomagnetic Storm) at 00:00 UTC on 12 November and 9 by 02:00 UTC (Extreme Geomagnetic Storm). NOAA Kp was Kp 9 (Extreme Geomagnetic Storm) for the 3-hour interval, from 00:00 to 03:00 UTC on 12 November.

This extreme geomagnetic storm is expected to persist for the next several hours to a day. Moreover, the coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 600), following the X5.1 flare (SIDC flare 6028) at 10:04 UTC on 11 November with an initiation speed of about 1500 km/s, is still en route and expected to arrive early on 13 November 2025. Its arrival may further disturb the solar wind conditions. These CMEs originated from Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274), which remains highly active, so additional strong flares, proton event, and further CMEs remain possible.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
# #
# Website http://www.sidc.be. #
# E-mail sidc-support@oma.be #
# To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php #
# #
# Legal notices: #
# - Intellectual Property Rights: #
# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet ... icy-en.pdf #
# - Liability Disclaimer: #
# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet ... mer-en.pdf #
# - Use and processing of your personal information: #
# http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet ... icy-en.pdf #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

[Ulrich Rieth]

Ja, hieße es.
Aber, beim CME Scoreboard liegt das Mittel der Prognose so irgendwo im UTC Nachmittag, ich sag mal so grob bei 15:00 UTC.
Das wäre dann optimal für uns.
Mal schauen, was passiert.
Im Scoreboard gibt es eigentlich nur einen Wert am Morgen des 13.11., also die Minderheitsmeinung.

[Dexruus]

Also das Helioforecast Modell der Österreicher sagt ja auch so 16-17-18 Uhr; stand Modell 13 Uhr UTC https://helioforecast.space/cme

[Marcus Speckmann]

Heute gabs es ein X4 Flare.
Hatte der auch ein CME?

[Jörg Kaufmann]

@Marcus, guckst du hier:

[Ulrich Rieth]

Der X4 tobt sich grade am STEREO aus

https://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beac ... situ.shtml
Bz nahe -60nT