Zweiter X-Class Flare in diesem Jahr! X2.15@15.27UT *o.T.*

[Peter Kuklok]

Zweiter X-Class Flare in diesem Jahr! X2.15@15.27UT *o.T.*

[Peter Kuklok]

Genauso impulsiv wie die beiden anderen M-Flares am heutigen Tage. Dürften also alle aus 9961 kommen...9957 bleibt dagegen weiterhin ruhig.

Grüße
Peter

[udo, dk5ya]

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2002 May 20 1521 UTC
Maximum Time: 2002 May 20 1527 UTC
End Time: 2002 May 20 1531 UTC
X-ray Class: X2.1
Optical Class: 2b
Location: S21E65

[Herwig, Rostock]

Hallo,

wäre ja ganz nett, wenn mal wieder etwas Leben in die Bude käme.

http://www.bbso.njit.edu/arm/latest/

Gruß Herwig

> Genauso impulsiv wie die beiden anderen M-Flares am heutigen
> Tage. Dürften also alle aus 9961 kommen...9957 bleibt dagegen
> weiterhin ruhig.

> Grüße
> Peter

[Herwig, Rostock]

Nach C2 nur schmaler CME nach SE *o.T.*

[Peter Wloch]

Wann kracht Hoffnungstraeger 9957 ? *o.T.*

[Ulrich Rieth]

...die hat eine klassische Ost-West Inversionslinie der Magnetfeldpolaritäten.
9961 dagegen ist hyperaktiv mit einer Nord-Süd-Inversion.
Außerdem kommt gerade noch eine aktive Gruppe ostlich von 9960, die schon einige M's hinterm Rand geschafft hat.
Zur Zeit ist 9961 der sichere Kandidat, aber die sieht mir eher so aus, als könne sie nur Flares ohne Massenauswürfe.
Damit sehe ich eigentlich keine akute PL Chance für Mitteleuropa.
Wenn 9961 es aber schafft, durch einen Major Flare das Filament südlich des Flecks zum Kollaps zu bringen, ändert sich die Sache wieder.
Aber jetzt sollte man auch erstmal auf das nächste Magnetogramm warten, denn der X1 hat sicherlich einiges an Spannungen abgebaut.
Gruß

Ulrich

[Peter Kuklok]

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT

ISSUED: 16:25 UTC, 20 MAY 2002

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

Two major solar flares have erupted within the last 6 hours. A class
M5.04 event (currently optically uncorrelated) occurred at 10:53 UTC on 20
May. This was a very brief and impulsive x-ray burst, lasting only about 6
minutes. A second intense class X2.15/2B solar flare was observed several
hours later at 15:27 UTC from Region 9961 (S21 E65). This flare itself was
also impulsive and of relatively short duration (about 13 minutes, with a
fairly low integrated x-ray flux of near 0.72 Joules per square meter).
Fairly substantial dark surging was associated with an ejection of mass
shortly after the h-alpha peak of the flare event.

Region 9961 is a very rapidly growing sunspot complex. Within the last
24 hours, it has increased substantially in size and magnetic complexity. It
now contains what appears to be a delta magnetic configuration with tight
magnetic gradients (it is still technically too close to the east limb to
unconditionally verify a delta configuration). Its rapid growth of opposite
magnetic polarities in close proximity to each other is probably responsible
for the production of the major flare(s) observed thus far.

If growth continues, additional major M and X-class solar flares will
probably be observed over the next few days. Continued growth could see this
active spot complex become a significant source of energetic activity as it
transits the solar disk. However, the energetic activity observed thus far
may help to slow and/or stop the growth in the region.

A preliminary assessement suggests there were no Earthward-directed
coronal mass ejections associated with this major solar flare activity.

** End of Notice **

Quelle: http://www.spacew.com/www/flralrtrpt.html

[Peter Kuklok]

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 20-MAY-2002 17:22:59 UT

NOAA 9957, N08E25. Beta-gamma-delta region. Region has maintained its strong north-south neutral line with a delta configuration in its northern portions. Region has produced several C-class events. Expect C-class and M-class events with a chance for an X-class event.

NOAA 9961, S22E66. Beta-delta region. A new region has rotated onto the south-east limb which looks to contain a compact delta configuration. Region is to close too the east limb to ascertain its full magnetic complexity. Region produced a M5.0@1053UT and an X2.1@1530UT today. Expect C-class and M-class events with chance for an X-class.

RF

Quelle: http://www.bbso.njit.edu/cgi-bin/ActivityReport

[Peter Kuklok]

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 20-MAY-2002 17:22:59 UT

NOAA 9957, N08E25. Beta-gamma-delta region. Region has maintained its strong north-south neutral line with a delta configuration in its northern portions. Region has produced several C-class events. Expect C-class and M-class events with a chance for an X-class event.

NOAA 9961, S22E66. Beta-delta region. A new region has rotated onto the south-east limb which looks to contain a compact delta configuration. Region is to close too the east limb to ascertain its full magnetic complexity. Region produced a M5.0@1053UT and an X2.1@1530UT today. Expect C-class and M-class events with chance for an X-class.

RF

Quelle: http://www.bbso.njit.edu/cgi-bin/ActivityReport

[Peter Wloch]

Hi Ulrich,
Du schreibst

> ...die (9957) hat eine klassische Ost-West Inversionslinie der
> Magnetfeldpolaritäten.

Im BBSO, gesandt von Peter Kuklok, steht folgendes:

BBSO Solar Activity Warning 20-MAY-2002 17:22:59 UT
NOAA 9957, N08E25. Beta-gamma-delta region. Region has maintained its strong north-south neutral line with a delta configuration in its northern portions. Region has produced several C-class events. Expect C-class and M-class events with a chance for an X-class event.

Dann besteht ja noch Hoffnung..., hoffentlich

Aber was heisst "delta configuration"

Und Beta, Gamma?
Wo kann ich da mehr nachlesen?

Gruss Peter