STD MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH *LINK*

[Dirk Obudzinski]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 06:45 UTC, 05 DECEMBER 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
EXTENDED UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 07 DECEMBER

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: IN-PROGRESS

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 05 - 06 DECEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 05 - 07 DECEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 35, 35, 25, 15 (05 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 24 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 24 TO 48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND PRIOR TO LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA TO

WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO VERMONT TO

MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN

FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA (VICTORIA).

SYNOPSIS...

Effects of a solar coronal hole based disturbance are producing periods
of enhanced auroral activity. Despite the near-full and waxing phase of the
moon, middle latitude observers may be able to spot periods of activity
during the next 12 to 72 hours.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
07 December. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

** End of Watch **