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[Heiko]

Latest Geomagnetic and Auroral Activity Conditions

RECORD-BREAKING X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE

Updated: 21:30 UTC 05 November (4:30 pm EST, 05 November):

Impact of the anticipated coronal mass ejection from yesterdays powerful X-class flare is expected sometime near or after 07:00 UTC (2 am EST) on 06 November. No significant effects are anticipated. However, periods of minor to major storming are probable, along with possible periods of mid-latitude auroral activity sightings. A middle latitude aurora watch is active.

Solar Activity Update

At approximately 19:47 UTC (2:47 pm EST) on 04 November, active sunspot complex 10486 spawned what is probably the most intense x-ray flare in history. X-ray sensors on-board the GOES spacecraft are only capable of registering x-ray intensities up to a class X17.4 level. X-ray intensities beyond this level saturate the detectors. This solar flare saturated the x-ray detectors for 11 minutes, leaving space weather forecasters and scientists with some work to try and extrapolate the true intensity of the event. Based on a preliminary extrapolation, it appears that this x-ray flare peaked somewhere between the X30 and X40 levels, which was unheard of until yesterday and is possibly as much as twice as energetic as the X17 solar flare observed on 02 November.

To place this event into historic perspective, it very likely ranks as the most powerful x-ray flare ever observed. During the last two weeks, active Region 10486 has produced three x-ray flares that have ranked within the top 10 of the most intense events in history. It has been quite a ride!

Region 10486 has now rotated behind the western limb and out of view. It will now spend the next two weeks traversing the far side of the Sun. Whether it survives its passage on the far-side and returns to the eastern limb in two weeks in a form still capable of producing energetic events remains unknown. It is possible it could return in a form still capable of producing energetic events, but the odds are against it.

Although only time will tell, observers on Earth will be able to monitor its progress indirectly by watching for coronal mass ejections that occur on the far side of the Sun, but are still visible from Earth via the SOHO LASCO cameras.

Gruss Heiko