Quiet before the storm ...

[jan lameer]

Some humour from IPS :

Last updated 24 Oct 2003 00:01 UT

24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity High High High
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 195/147 195/147
COMMENT: Solar region 486 located at S16E70 produced the X5 and
X1 flares. Despite the regions far west location the X5 flare
was associated with a front side full halo mass ejection. Event
parameters give a shock arrival window of 04 to 12UT on 26Oct.
There are now two shocks enroute to the Earth, another shock
from an earlier event near region 484 is expected to arrive first
half of 24 Oct. Region 484 contributed some mid range M class
events yesterday. Further M and X class activity is expected
today. Solar wind speed has now declined to 400km/sec, with Bz
(the north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field)
maintaining a mildly northward orientation. Quiet before the
storm.

[Peter Wloch]

Hi Jan ,

Here are the original from IPS:

Last updated 24 Oct 2003 01:00 UT

SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 03/48
ISSUED AT 22/2326Z OCTOBER 2003
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

WARNING 48 UPDATE DUE TO ANOTHER MASS EJECTION

NEARLY FULL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED 22OCT 0754UT.
FULL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED 23 OCT 0845UT.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION IMPACTS
FROM 24-26 OCTOBER 2003
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
24 Oct: Active to Minor storm, chance major storm periods.
25 Oct: active to minor storm early in UT day.
26 Oct: Minor to major storm conditions.

Groetjes

Peter
-------------------------

: Some humour from IPS : Last updated 24 Oct 2003 00:01 UT

: 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
: Activity High High High
: Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
: 10.7cm/SSN 190/143 195/147 195/147
: COMMENT: Solar region 486 located at S16E70 produced the X5 and
: X1 flares. Despite the regions far west location the X5 flare
: was associated with a front side full halo mass ejection. Event
: parameters give a shock arrival window of 04 to 12UT on 26Oct.
: There are now two shocks enroute to the Earth, another shock
: from an earlier event near region 484 is expected to arrive first
: half of 24 Oct. Region 484 contributed some mid range M class
: events yesterday. Further M and X class activity is expected
: today. Solar wind speed has now declined to 400km/sec, with Bz
: (the north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field)
: maintaining a mildly northward orientation. Quiet before the
: storm.