CME impact predictions

[Ulrich Rieth]

Event #26 - 23 July 2002
Issued: 22:55 UTC, 23 July 2002

SOURCE EVENT

X4.8/2B Flare and CME in Active Region 10039 - near N13 W72 at 00:35 UTC on 23 July
Type II: Estimated near 900 km/sec on 23 July
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: near 2170 km/sec on 23 July

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 06:00 UTC on 24 July to 24:00 UTC on 24 July
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 16:00 UTC, 24 July 2002
Estimated Shock Strength (0: Weakest, 9=Strongest): 5

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD

EVENT #26 NOTES:

This disturbance has the potential of producing periods of stronger than expected geomagnetic activity given the velocity of the disturbance and the interaction the HCS may play in its arrival. Periods of strong northward and southward turnings are expected during what will probably be a rather chaotic solar wind environment. This is expected to be a dominantly oblique impact and as such will not be as strong as it could be if the CME were directed more directly toward the Earth. Additional high velocity CMEs with trajectories more directly toward the Earth are expected over the next several days. Those disturbance will probably have a greater potential to produce strong levels of geomagnetic and auroral storm activity than this anticipated disturbance.

[Heiko]

EPAM ruehrt sich aber noch nicht !? *o.T.*

[Heiko]

EPAM zuckt sich immer noch nicht !? Kommt doch nicht's ? *o.T.*

[Ulrich Rieth]

Jetzt geht er aber... *o.T.*

[Heiko]

Naja - jetzt geht er wieder nach unten - ich glaube, da haben sich einige Leute mit der Ankunftszeit recht verrechnet .
Aber ist ja auch wieder logisch, denn heute Nacht waere das Wetter auch noch recht angenehm. Morgen Nacht schifft es dagegen wieder !
Und mit 10039 sehe ich auch nicht so rosig, da geht sicher erst wieder was, wenn das Teil im Westen wieder verschwindet .....

Deprimierte Gruesse

Heiko

[wolfgang hamburg]

0039 hatte bis jetzt immer 48-72h zwischen den Events, noch ist Zeit, nicht so gierig! *o.T.*