...mal wieder eine PM von Cary Oler...in Auszügen für Euch

[Ulrich Rieth]

> PS.: How about some speculations on former sunspot 10017. Maybe it's an
nice
> spot with reversed polarity like 9415 in April 2001? MDI magnetogramm
shows
> the first signs of that spot. I hope for some frontside flaring with
CME's.

Impossible to say right now. It's dark here and I never saw the spots
first-hand myself (it was cloudy). Most observatories only saw some faculae
preceding the visual appearance of the spots. I see though that SOHO is
showing some. Still, there's too much foreshortening in the imagery to see
any detail. I'll be observing at the telescope tommorrow for part of the day
and hope to see more then.

Anyway, you wanted speculation. Here's some speculation - and it's based on
very little more than guess work and persistence. Because this active region
has been regularly pulsing with activity, it is reasonable to assume it may
continue to do so. However, it's also reasonable to assume that because it
has been pulsing hard for at least the last week or so, that it may be well
into its decay phase. So it's reasonable to suggest that the spot complex
might also become quiet as it rounds the limb and heads into our neck of the
woods. Until the spot complex shows itself for the next several days and can
be scrutinized in detail, neither of these answers will be answerable.
Persistence generally works which is why we (and SEC and others) would not
be a bit surprised if the spot complex throws off additional occasional
major X-class flares over the coming week. I personally expect another major
event any minute or hour now.

By the way, Region 17 has already rotated into view as a spotless (or nearly
spotless) plage region. This spot complex appears to be right where it
should be if it were the return of Region 16. As you may recall, Region 16
was a lifeless lump of nothingness during its last solar rotation. The most
complex shape it took was a C-type spot group little more than about 100
millionths in size. It didn't produce any C-class flares either, if memory
serves. If this is that region, it obviously bloomed on the back-side.

- Cary Oler