POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING

[Peter Kuklok]

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING

UPDATED: 21:30 UTC, 17 JULY 2002

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

SYNOPSIS:

Sunspot region 10036 has continued to grow in both penumbral coverage
and magnetic complexity since it rotated into view several days ago around
the southeast limb. Although the spot complex has been quiet lately, its
growing complexity may result in increased levels of energetic solar flare
activity over the coming days, particularly if growth continues. Recent
analyses suggest a moderately strong delta configuration exists to
the south of the largest trailer spots. Gradients are strong across the
neutral line near the delta and magnetic shear may be increasing. Additional
growth may result in isolated major flaring from this spot complex.

Sunspot region 10030 continues to grow in area and spot complexity.
Earlier today, it produced a less significant (compared to the X-class flare
on the 15th) major M8.5 solar flare at 07:13 UTC with a full halo CME. A type
II sweep was associated with this event having an estimated shock velocity
near 700 km/sec. The halo CME likewise had an estimated plane of sky velocity
near 600 to 700 km/sec.

Region 10030 has an area of strong magnetic shear located within a delta
in the northern portion of the central spot complex. Strong magnetic
gradients also coexist in this area, which has been the site of numerous
smaller flare events. Additional minor and major solar flares (possibly of
stronger intensity than currently observed) are expected from this spot
complex as it continues to evolve. There is a high risk of additional
potentially strong enhancements in energetic proton densities in the
near-Earth space environment over the next 5 days.

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

quelle: http://www.spacew.com/www/flrwarnrpt.html

[Ulrich Rieth]

...ich glaube ich sollte bei den Jungs anfangen
Gruß

Ulrich

[Ulrich Rieth]

siehe: http://solar.spacew.com/swim/spotsale.html