Moderator: StefanK
MAJOR SOLAR FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X5-class solar flare from big sunspot AR1429. The blast peaked on March 7th at 00:28 UT. Radiation storms and radio blackouts are possible.
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(verfällt, irgendwann)Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 778
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0109 UTC
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0017 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 2273 km/s
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.Code: Alles auswählen
Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 531
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 0310 UTC
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0007 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 07 0117 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 07 0210 UTC
Duration: 123 minutes
Peak Flux: 7200 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 138 sfu
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.Code: Alles auswählen
FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) continues to grow and now has beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Another major flare from this active region is possible, most probably not earlier than tomorrow. Due to the Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) approach to the solar central meridian, another Earth-directed CME and SEP release will be probable.
The X5.4 flare this morning was accompanied by a full halo CME first appearing in the LASCO C2 field of view at 00:24 UT. The CME speed was around 2300 km/s. We expect the arrival of the corresponding ICME at the Earth tomorrow, most probably in the evening. At least a strong (K = 7) geomagnetic storm will be possible.
The SEP flux continues to increase, with the proton flux at energies above 100 MeV crossing the SEP event threshold (10 pfu) around 10 UT today. We expect the proton flux to remain elevated at least until the arrival of the CME-driven shock tomorrow evening and possibly after that.
SOHO/CELIAS and ACE confirm the detection of the interplanetary shock wave that arrived at 03:35 UT today. This shock wave was most probably associated with the halo CME erupted on March 4. The plasma measurements by ACE are now corrupted by the on-going major SEP event.
The Earth is currently inside the post-shock solar wind flow with moderate speed (around 420 km/s) and elevated (around 15 nT) interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude. The north-south IMF component Bz is currently fluctuating near zero, but had extended intervals of negative values in the recent hours. A geomagnetic storm resulted despite the moderate solar wind speeds: K = 6 was reported by NOAA and K = 5 was reported by Dourbes.
Another shock may arrive this evening (associated with the halo CME on March 5), possibly resulting in another geomagnetic storm.
Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium 
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