partiell halo CME - ETA prediction

[Ulrich Rieth]

Event #28 - 13 August 2002
Issued: 03:25 UTC, 13 August 2002

SOURCE EVENT

Eruptive Filament and CME near N36 W03 at 23:30 UTC on 09 August
Type II: None reported.
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: near 619 km/sec

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 04:00 UTC on 13 August to 03:00 UTC on 14 August
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 14:30 UTC, 13 August 2002
Estimated Shock Strength (0: Weakest, 9=Strongest): 2

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
NORTHWARD

EVENT #28 NOTES:

If this disturbance arrives at all, it should be fairly weak and may serve to prolong the effects of the existing coronal hole based disturbance. A weak shock is expected to accompany the disturbance, although there is a chance it may degenerate into a magnetohydrodynamic wave before reaching the Earth. Confidence is not particularly high that this disturbance will arrive. However, the LASCO science team did uncover a partial halo CME associated with this event, so there is of course a chance the Earth may observe something from it. This prediction is late due to the fact the LASCO team did not publish their findings until late on the 12th. Impact could occur anytime over the next 24 hours.
These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.