CME ETA Prediction (STD)

[Peter Kuklok]

Event #27 - 27 July 2002
Issued: 19:15 UTC, 27 July 2002

SOURCE EVENT

M8.7/2B Flare and CME in Active Regions 10039/10044 - near S19 E26 at 21:12 UTC on 26 July
Type II: None reported.
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: near 800 km/sec

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 06:00 UTC on 29 July to 03:00 UTC on 30 July
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 15:30 UTC, 29 July 2002
Estimated Shock Strength (0: Weakest, 9=Strongest): 5

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
NORTHWARD

EVENT #27 NOTES:

This is not expected to be a particularly significant disturbance. It may produce periods of minor geomagnetic and auroral storm conditions during the height of the activity.