LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING (10.11.2004, 01:25UTC)

[Ulrich Rieth]

@Peter Kuklok: Hatten wir sowas schonmal?

LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Issued: 01:25 UTC 10 November 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 10 NOVEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 10 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 10-11 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 100, 30, 20, 20 (10 - 13 NOVEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM LOW LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS PERSIST)

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NEVADA TO SOUTHERN UTAH AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
NORTHERN ARIZONA TO SOUTHERN COLORADO AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO TO OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF TEXAS TO
ARKANSAS TO TENNESSEE TO NORTH CAROLINA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

FRANCE TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CZECH REPUBLIC TO CENTRAL POLAND TO
NORTHERN UKRAINE TO SOUTHERN BELARUS TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

NEW ZEALAND TO SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA TO SOUTHERN ARGENTINA TO SOUTHERN CHILE.

SYNOPSIS...

Once again, North American mid to low latitude observers may be treated
to displays of auroral activity. Auroral storming is expected to intensify
during the local evening over North America and should become visible over
widespread middle and many low latitude locations. This disturbance is
expected to subside within the next 9 to 15 hours, although residual storm
activity will persist for up to 24 to 36 hours after conditions abate. Mild
auroral activity may therefore be observed from the middle latitudes
tommorrow night as well, although the most intense activity will occur
tonight.

This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
10 November. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Notice **

[PeterKuklok]

Hallo Ulrich,

@Peter Kuklok: Hatten wir sowas schonmal?

ja, STD Low Latitude WARNINGs gab es bisher 2mal, wenn ich mich nicht irre. Im November 2003 und voher in der ersten Hälfte der 90er Jahre.
Allerdings wundere ich mich etwas, dass diese Warnung trotzdem "nur" bis in die Mitte Deustchlands reicht bzw. "nur" bis Nord-Kalifornien usw. Wir hatten ja schon Mid-Warnings, die sehr viel weiter südlich gingen.

Grüße
Peter

[Ulrich Rieth]

Hi Peter!

Allerdings wundere ich mich etwas, dass diese Warnung trotzdem "nur" bis in die Mitte Deustchlands reicht bzw. "nur" bis Nord-Kalifornien usw. Wir hatten ja schon Mid-Warnings, die sehr viel weiter südlich gingen.

Ja, das hat mich auch etwas verwundert.
Aber da es wohl nur ein copy-paste von vorher und in aller Eile war, sind die Grenzen wohl nicht ausgelohtet gewesen.
Außerdem war das Oval ja schon gut aus Europa weg, weshalb zumindest die Europäischen Grenzen nicht viel weiter nach Süden gesetzt werden mussten.
Das wären zumindest meine Vermutungen.
Gruß

Ulrich