STD update, 07:55 UTC 13 July

[Ulrich Rieth]

Latest Geomagnetic and Auroral Activity

Updated: 07:55 UTC 13 July (3:55 am EDT, 13 July)

Effects of a small coronal hole continue to influence geomagnetic activity. Activity should slowly decline over the next 24 to 48 hours. A major class M6.8 solar flare early on 13 July (see below) may have been associated with an Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection. Conclusive data is not yet available.

Solar Activity Update

Sunspot complex 646 (in the northwestern solar quadrant) experienced rapid growth over the last 24 hours and spawned a major class M6.8 solar x-ray flare early in the UTC day of 13 July. A very slight enhancement in energetic protons at > 10 MeV accompanied this event. Although SOHO data is not yet available to confirm it, the available evidence suggests the event was associated with a coronal mass ejection. A portion of it could have been directed Earthward. More details will be made available as additional data is processed.

[Ralf Pitscheneder]

Hallo zusammen,

... und hier noch der aktuelle Solar Activity Watch des STD:

Space Weather News for July 13, 2004
http://spaceweather.com

SOLAR ACTIVITY WATCH: The Sun has been mostly quiet for weeks, but this
could soon change. One or more big sunspots are turning toward Earth,
raising the possibility of solar flares, geomagnetic storms and auroras in
the days and weeks ahead.
...

Das läßt zumindest hoffen ...

Zumindest habe ich momentan mein SAM wieder angeworfen.

Gruß
Ralf

[Sebastian Lilienthal]

Hallo,

auf der Seite des Active Region Monitor ist jetzt auch folgendes nachzulesen:

Max Millennium MOTD issued on 13-Jul-2004 13:58:57.000 UT ... MM#003 Major Flare Watch ...Dear RHESSI collaborators, Two regions on the solar disk (NOAA 0649 and 0646) have produced numerous C- and M-class flares over the past 48 hours. Further low- to intermediate- level events expected from both regions, with a good chance for an X-class flare.

Grüße,

Sebastian

[Ulrich Rieth]

Hallo!

Erstmal der kurze Hinweis, dass die Meldungen auf Spaceweather.com NICHTS mit dem Solar Terrestrial Dispatch (STD) zu tun haben. Nur damit da keine Verwirrung aufkommt.
Und jetzt der Alarm von heute zu den beiden Major Flares. Aber wie darin schon steht und wie man am Röntgenfluss ablesen kann, hat sich die Gruppe mittlerweile wieder etwas stabilisiert.
Gruß

Ulrich


/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT

ISSUED: 14:30 UTC, 13 JULY 2004

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


SYNOPSIS:

Active Region 646 was responsible for producing two major M-class solar
flares during the last 15 hours. The first as a class M6.8 event at 00:17 UTC
on 13 July that was followed roughly 9 hours later by a class M5.4 event at
08:48 UTC. The impetus for this activity appears to be the rapid growth of
two opposite polarity centers along a sheared east-west oriented neutral
line, with negative polarity flux tightly enshrouding the southern and
eastern regime of the positive polarity spot. The latest magnetograms
indicate some weakening of the positive polarity flux along the eastern flank
of the spot group, but moderately strong shear and high gradients are still
persisting along the east-west inversion line. Additional minor and/or major
M-class flare events appears likely.

The M6.8 event was associated with a weak enhancement of energetic
protons at greater than 10 MeV. Another more energetic proton flare cannot be
discounted at this time.

New Region 649 (along the southeastern limb) also appears to have
energetic flare potential. Although it is still to close to the limb to
properly examine, its apparent history of strong backside activity suggests
it may be capable of major M and possibly X-class activity. Thus far, it has
produced two minor M-class flare events, the most recent occurring at 12:08
UTC on 13 July.


** End of Notice **

[Ralf Pitscheneder]

Hallo Ulrich,

danke für die Berichtigung ! Vielleicht sollte ich VOR dem Tippen das Hirn einschalten ...

Gruß
Ralf