[Ulrich Rieth]

SUBJECT>Aurora WATCH aktiv -> Coronal Hole Effekte

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 06:35 UTC, 27 MAY 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) ON 27 MAY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 27 MAY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 27 MAY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 22, 15, 10, 10 (27 MAY - 30 MAY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW TO MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 6 TO 12 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL

MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK SKY SITES OF NEW YORK

STATE, VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME

NORTHERN GERMANY TO EXTREME NORTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN LITHUANIA TO

LATVIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

An enhanced solar wind stream has begun impacting the Earth's
magnetosphere over the last several hours. A fairly strong southward turning
of the IMF has been observed that may lead to invigorated levels of auroral
substorm activity over the high and some dark-sky middle latitude regions.
However, the full phase of the moon will significantly limit the visibility
of all but the brightest auroral activity. As a result, this probably will
not be a very good episode of activity for visual observers. People with
photographic skills may have better luck.

This watch will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 27 May.
It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

A FREE trial of the powerful SWIM software package is now available at:
http://www.spacew.com/swim

** End of Watch **