MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH EXTENDED

[Bernhard Dorner]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH EXTENDED: 19:30 UTC, 01 OCTOBER 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) ON 02 OCTOBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 01 OCT (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 01 - O2 OCT

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 20, 15, 12, 12 (01 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 6 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 6 TO 18 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: PRIOR TO LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE AFTER MOONRISE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO CENTRAL IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO NORTHERN

SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN

NEW YORK STATE TO VERMONT TO NEW HAMPSHIRE TO SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN

POLAND TO LITHUANIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF

NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

The middle latitude auroral activity watch has been EXTENDED through the
next 24 hour period. The disturbance which brought periods of major auroral
storming to western North America, New Zealand and Australia is now
subsiding. Although activity was fairly strong, ground-based observational
reports of the activity were less impressive. The general consensus is that
this display remained dominantly confined to the higher latitudes until
around 11:00 UTC (7 am EDT) on 01 October. Activity then intensified
(primarily over the northern Pacific ocean region and the New
Zealand / southern Austrlian areas). European and central-to-eastern North
American regions missed the most intense phase of activity due to daylight
or twilight conditions.

Activity is on the decline. Only the northern European regions are
expected to have any real chance of observing brief mid-latitude activity as
this disturbance continues to weaken. Nevertheless, post-storm residual
substorm activity may produce occassional brief sightings of activity through
perhaps the next 12 hours.

There is also a chance we may see some elevated activity over the next
24 hours in response to a possible solar coronal hole solar wind stream that
could begin affecting the Earth anytime now. The late onset of the coronal
hole based disturbance implies that it probably will not have the same impact
as it did during the last solar rotation, if it has any impact at all. The
coronal hole boundaries have shifted poleward since the last solar rotation,
which has undoubtably altered the dynamics of the situation. In general,
expect only mild enhancements in activity - primarily over the higher
latitudes, if this coronal hole disturbance does in fact arrive.

This watch will remain valid through 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 02 October.
It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

A FREE trial of the space weather "SWIM" software package is now
available at: http://www.spacew.com/swim. Use it to monitor current
conditions. It may also be used to monitor any image resource you find on the
Internet (including almost any type of 'cam' or "pictures of the day" you
can find).

** End of Watch **