2002 NT7 und Fragen

[jan lameer]

Hi all and thanks for all the congratulations !!!

As a special gift to myself I have allowed myself to write a newspaper article again (since solar activity is stil slow).

Object is 2002 NT7.

I've pretty much roamed the internet on NEAR etcetera articles and all proposals and have a good theoretical background now, but my main question is:

What means a 1: 100,000 chance or sayings like "There is a 1: 1,000 chance that you or your grandchildren will experience such a disaster"
???

Is this pure mathematics or what is it?
The question is not politically pointed, but rather hoping that mathematically or statistically members of this forum could try to think of an answer.
Thanks, Jan Lameer

[Gunnar Glitscher]

Hi Jan,

the point is, that the exact orbit of NT7 is not known and it needs more observations to fix it. Therefore at the moment there is quite a large uncertainty about it's track during the passage of our planet in 2019. The current data say, that earth will be inside a sector that contains a multitude of possible trajectories. Nearly all of them will lead to a near miss, only a small fraction will end in a collision, i.e. a collision fortunately is not the most probable scenario. BUT it can not be ruled out as long as we don't have very good orbital data for NT7.

Greetings,
Gunnar

> Hi all and thanks for all the congratulations !!!

> As a special gift to myself I have allowed myself to write a
> newspaper article again (since solar activity is stil slow).

> Object is 2002 NT7.

> I've pretty much roamed the internet on NEAR etcetera articles
> and all proposals and have a good theoretical background now,
> but my main question is:

> What means a 1: 100,000 chance or sayings like "There is a
> 1: 1,000 chance that you or your grandchildren will experience
> such a disaster"
> ???

> Is this pure mathematics or what is it?
> The question is not politically pointed, but rather hoping that
> mathematically or statistically members of this forum could try
> to think of an answer.
> Thanks, Jan Lameer

[Ulrich Rieth]

Hi Jan!

Die you read the latest Science@NASA article?
Tony Phillips might have some explanations for you?
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2002 ... list606728
Regards

Ulrich

[jan lameer]

Thanks Gunnar and Ulrich !

I indeed didn't notice the article by Tony Phillips. It sets a good mood.
Also indeed it is rather a problem of uncertainty than chance. For large objects classical mechanics applies and "just" a large amount of good observations can define a very well understood orbit.

2002 NT7 was classified as a Torino scale 1 object (scale 0-10) which only means: more observations are needed to get a better orbit; chance of impact is less than the chance that another (unknown) object of the same size will impact earlier.

Also there is an advice that when for instance a possible impact is due in seven years, scientists will first take seven days for better observations and calculations before they publish their warnings. In the case of 2002NT7 they (or the media?) should have taken almost a month before publishing. This to prevent "cry wolf effects"

Best suggestions to prevent disaster; cover the asteroid with milkpowder (suggested during coffe break at Torino meeting) or wrap the asteroid with space foils (like the artist Christo).
Solar radiation will do the rest and push the asteroid outward of the solar system (mean albedo of asteroids is only 0.13

By the way, Ulrich and me didn't get the X birthday present(s) we asked for, who's birthday is next this week?