STD: Potential Major Solar Flare Warning (Update)

[Peter Kuklok]

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POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING

UPDATED: 01:25 UTC, 26 JULY 2002

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SYNOPSIS:

Sunspot complex 10039 continues to pose a substantial threat for
potential major flare activity. Although it has been quiet over the last 48
hours, the dynamics appear to be present for another major solar flare
anytime now. Magnetic analysis conducted today reveals very strong magnetic
shear and high gradients along the neutral line where the delta configuration
exists. Another major event from this region is considered imminent.

Sunspot group 10044 is rapidly developing just south of Region 10039.
This is (thus far) a reversed polarity spot complex. It produced a
short-duration but near-major in amplitude class M4.9 solar x-ray flare at
00:10 UTC on 26 July that was associated with a brief 260 sfu tenflare. This
spot complex shows perhaps one weak developing delta in the neighborhood
where the solar flare occurred. It is not unreasonable to assume that another
isolated major event may occur in this spot complex should growth continue.

Sympathetic flaring is expected between Regions 10044 and 10039. Activity
in Region 10044 may also trigger larger events in Region 10039. The dynamics
of these two regions may become increasingly interesting if Region 10044
continues to grow. Field merging may also occur in the near future if growth
rates persist.

Region 10036 is becoming less of a threat after experiencing accelerated
decay over the last 24 hours. This long-dormant spot complex may remain
dormant as it approaches the west limb.

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