STD Forecast Notes - Update 1.40UT

[Peter Kuklok]

LAST UPDATE: 18 JULY 2002, 01:40 UTC (9:40 pm EDT 17 July):

The arrival of the anticipated CME from the X-class solar flare of 15 July
has failed to generate any substantial solar wind conditions capable of
driving auroral substorming. The disturbance was also fairly short lived and
it is becoming apparent that the Earth was probably hit by the western
flanking edge rather than a more direct head-on collision. Although there is
a slight chance middle latitude regions might spot weak periods of
infrequent activity, it is more probable that auroral activity will remain
confined to the high latitudes for the remainder of this disturbance.

Todays M8 x-ray major flare appears to have thrown out a weak halo CME, but
again most of the mass was directed northeast of the Earth. A similar, if
not slightly weaker, impact is anticipated sometime on 20 July.

Sunspot region 10030 is expected to produce additional major solar flares as
it continues to transit the western solar hemisphere. CMEs associated with
these possible future events could be much more geoeffective than what we
have currently observed. Region 10036 also has the potential to produce
major levels of activity. So we are still far from being out of the "woods."

Quelle: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forumnotes.html