STD: CME Impact Prediction

[Peter Kuklok]

Event #34 - 09 November 2002
Issued: 22:50 UTC, 09 November 2002

SOURCE EVENT

M4.6/2B Proton Flare near S12 W29 at 13:23 UTC on 09 November
Type II: 770 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: near 1800 km/sec (SW)

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 21:00 UTC on 10 November to 23:00 UTC on 11 November
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 05:00 UTC, 11 November 2002
Estimated Shock Strength (0: Weakest, 9=Strongest): 6

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
NORTHWARD

EVENT #34 NOTES:

This energetic solar flare and proton event was associated with a high velocity full-halo coronal mass ejection with a major component to the southwest of the Earth. A moderately strong energetic proton event is in progress at greater than 10 MeV. The Space Environment Center and the USAF believes impact will occur late in the UTC day of 11 November (probably sometime after 18:00 UTC) and result in generally active levels of geomagnetic activity (they make no mention of anticipating any storm conditions).

We (STD) believe that the disturbance could arrive early in the UTC day of 11 November and produce periods of potentially strong levels of geomagnetic activity. We believe at least minor to major storm intervals (with isolated severe storming over the higher latitudes) are possible. This disturbance is expected to combine with an anticipated higher velocity coronal hole based disturbance. Potentially strong geoeffective conditions are possible with this disturbance.