MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

[Jan Koll]

Ich hoffe, daß es richtig ist, dieses zu Posten.....Bei andere
Meinung bitte antworten....

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 16:25 UTC, 22 NOVEMBER 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
EXTENDED UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 23 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: IN-PROGRESS

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 22 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 22 - 23 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 28, 25, 25, 20 (22 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 6 TO 12 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 12 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND PRIOR TO LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NIL

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA TO

WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO VERMONT TO

MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN

FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA (VICTORIA).

SYNOPSIS...

Combined effects of a transient disturbance (a coronal mass ejection
from 20 November) and a well placed solar coronal hole high speed solar wind
stream are increasing levels of geomagnetic and auroral activity over the
higher latitude regions. A southward rotation of the IMF is in-progress and
could result in modestly favorable periods of auroral activity over some high
and upper-middle latitude regions during the next 12 to 18 hours. The coronal
hole stream should help prolong mild activity through most of 23 November. No
significant auroral storming is anticipated.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
23 November. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

** End of Watch **