CME Impact prediction update - severe storm!

[Ulrich Rieth]

Erstmal ein paar Wort von Cary Oler vom STD, die er ins STD Forum geschrieben hat:
"In case any of you are interested, the CME impact prediction covering the second X-class flare of yesterday is now available. We were
waiting for the LASCO data to arrive. Now that it has and we've completed a preliminary analysis, the page has been updated (time is
short, so getting it out is important). See: www.spacew.com/cme

We're more concerned about this oncoming event than we were several hours ago, now that the LASCO data is available. Consider
this a HEADS-UP warning - just in case we're right. Although I could very possibly eat my own words (and probably will), I believe that
SEC and the USAF may have seriously underestimated the potential size of the activity that is headed our way."

Event #48 - 26 October 2003
Issued: 16:30 UTC, 27 October 2003

SOURCE EVENT

Class X1.2/2N Flare in Region 484 at 18:19 UTC on 26 October 2003
Type II: 950 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: ~1550 km/sec (west)

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 19:00 UTC on 27 October to 15:00 UTC on 28 October
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 03:00 UTC, 28 October 2003
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 6

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD (and mixed)

EVENT #48 NOTES:

SOHO data received over the last few hours indicates that although much of the mass associated with this coronal mass ejection was directed westward, there was in fact a faint full halo signature visible in differenced imagery. The velocity of this disturbance is very high and has the potential to reach the Earth during the early part of 28 October.
Given the very close time of arrival estimates for Events 48 and 47 (see below), there is a concern that the two disturbances could combine and result in a stronger than originally anticipated disturbance. We believe there is a very real possibility for periods of severe geomagnetic storming associated with these two disturbances, particularly within the first 12 hours after the first disturbance arrives. The situation is too complex to model reliably.

[lutz schenk]

ist ja demnach überhaupt nicht so genial

Bleibt nur zu hoffen das er doch noch schnneler oder etwas langsamer war.

Gruß Lutz

[Ulrich Rieth]

...so ähnlich wie 06.11.2001...und daran denke ich schon den ganzen Tag, nur den Nebel, den muss ich nicht mehr haben.
Gruß

Ulrich

[Peter Kuklok]

Hi,

: there was in fact a faint full halo signature visible in
: differenced imagery.

das würde ich mir mal gerne auch anschauen. Kennt jemand zufälligerweise einen Link mit den entsprechenden Diffs?
Meine Links sind da leider nicht aktuell...und die Diffs beim STD sind wiederum zu aktuell

Grüße
Peter

[Oswald Dörwang]

Hi Ulrich,

die Zeit wurde doch um eine Stunde zurückgedreht.
Wär dann nicht PL evtl von 4 - 7 Uhr zu sehen?

Mit fragenden Grüssen
Oswald

: ...so ähnlich wie 06.11.2001...und daran denke ich schon den ganzen
: Tag, nur den Nebel, den muss ich nicht mehr haben.
: Gruß

: Ulrich

[Peter Kuklok]

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH UPDATED: 17:00 UTC, 27 OCTOBER 2003

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

** UPDATED TO INCLUDE NEW PREDICTIVE INFORMATION **

VALID BEGINNING AT: 19:00 UTC ON 27 OCTOBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 29 OCTOBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 28 OCTOBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 27 - 29 OCTOBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 20, 50, 30, 25 (27 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO WYOMING TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO IOWA TO

NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW

JERSEY.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

EXTREME NORTHERN FRANCE TO BELGIUM TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND

TO LITHUANIA TO LATVIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN (PARTICULARLY SOUTHEASTERN) REGIONS OF

AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

UPDATE: Analysis of the second major coronal mass ejection observed on Sunday
reveals that mass from that disturbance is directed Earthward, possibly at a
fairly high velocity. If true, impact of this CME could arrive in the early
UTC hours of 28 October (target time at the present time is ~03:00 UTC on 28
October). The arrival of this disturbance could result in periods of strong
geomagnetic and auroral storm activity if this prediction is correct. Our
primary concern is the possible near-simultaneous impact of both coronal mass
ejection disturbances from the two X-class flares of Sunday. If this occurs,
predictions of lower activity will probably prove incorrect.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
29 October. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

** End of Watch **

[Heiko]

hat jemand schon mal einen Blick auf die Wetterkarte geworfen ?
Es kommt ja meistens was dazwischen, bei mir im Moment die Arbeit, bei allen anderen wirds wohl puenktlich zum Eindunkeln am Dienstag Abend zumachen ......
(Ich weiss, der Oberpessimist ist eigentlich Lutz)

kurzer Gruss Heiko

[Heiko]

wie hoch ist die Chance, dass der Impact noch vor der Daemmerung Morgen frueh kommt ? In der Regel faengt der EPAM-Plot ja so 12 Stunden vorher an zu steigen oder ist diese "Regel" im Moment ausser Kraft ?

GGGGruss Heiko

[Ulrich Rieth]

...die Shockfront braucht ja noch ein paar Minuten bis zur Erde, wenn sie erstmal am ACE aufgetaucht ist.
Bei der erwarteten Reisezeit sind das zwar nur noch 30min, aber viel macht das auch nicht. Na vielleicht PL von 4:30 bis 7 Uhr.
Gruß

Ulrich

[Oswald Dörwang]

Re: Dankeschön für die Auskunft Ulrich. *NM*

[Ulrich Rieth]

...Du musst Dir mal den längsten EPAM 7d Plot ansehen.
Da siehst Du, dass wir uns schon auf einem irre hohen Level befinden, von dem aus es bis 10^5 nur noch ca. 3 und bis 10^6 nur noch etwa 6 Stunden dauert.
Also ist vom aktuellen Stand her noch jeder Impakt nach Mitternacht drin.
Gruß

Ulrich

PS.: Was die Wettersachen angeht, schau einfach nicht hin, kannst es eh nicht ändern.

[Ulrich Rieth]

aus dem heutigen Report:

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active. Two partial halo CME events
associated with X-class flares on 26 October may cause geomagnetic
storming on days one and two.