STD - CME Impact Prediction (X5.4) *LINK*

[Peter Kuklok]

Event #46 - 23 October 2003
Issued: 08:30 UTC, 24 October 2003

SOURCE EVENT

Class X5.4/1B Flare in Region 486 at 08:35 UTC on 23 October 2003
Type II: 967 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: 1110 km/sec

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 12:00 UTC on 25 October to 12:00 UTC on 26 October
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 02:00 UTC, 26 October 2003
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 4

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
NORTHWARD

EVENT #46 NOTES:

Periods of minor to major geomagnetic storming could accompany this disturbance when it arrives, with a slight chance for periods of severe storm activity.

[Peter Wloch]

Re: ...dann wirds wieder ein Glueckspiel *NM*

[Peter Kuklok]

Öhmm...war es jemals etwas anderes? *NM*

[Thomas Sävert]

Naja, es gab schon klarere Fälle *NM* *LINK*