Polarlichtwarnung für Deutschland

[Günther Strauch]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

WARNING ISSUED: 09:10 UTC, 20 NOVEMBER 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 31 NOVEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 20 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 20 - 21 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 65, 40, 20, 20 (20 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NIL TO LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO SOUTHERN WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO IOWA TO

ILLINOIS TO INDIANA TO OHIO TO WEST VIRGINIA TO MARYLAND TO DELAWARE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

IRELAND TO EXTREME NORTHERN FRANCE TO BELGIUM TO GERMANY TO POLAND TO

BELARUS TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF

POTENTIALLY STRONG ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A strong shock front in the solar wind has impacted the Earth and is
beginning to produce periods of moderate to strong auroral storm activity.
This activity is expected to continue through the next 6 to 18 hours before
gradually beginning to subside. Widespread observations of auroral activity
should be possible across much of western North America and may also be
easily visible from New Zealand and southeastern Australia.

This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
20 November. It will then be updated, downgraded to a watch or allowed to
expire altogether. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

** End of Warning **

[Wolfgang Dzieran]

Ich rechne nicht mit PL heute abend, denn in der Warning steht ja selbst, dass "This activity is expected to continue through the next 6 to 18 hours before gradually beginning to subside. "
Auf deutsch in etwa: "diese Aktivität wird die nächsten 6 bis 18 Stunden fortgesetzt bis sie beginnt abzuklingen."
Oder noch etwas freier übersetzt: "In den nächsten 6 Stunden gibt es noch was, aber wenn es in Europa dunkel wird ist die Aktivität vorbei."

Wir haben es in der Vergangenheit oft erlebt, dass solche "Vormittagsereignisse" nur etwas für Amerika sind (insbesondere Alaska), aber nicht mehr was für uns.

Aber vielleicht hilft ja "Daumen drücken".

Wolfgang
aus Bad Lippspringe bei Paderborn

[Heiko]

Hallo Wolfgang,

aus 501 kamen am Dienstag ja zwei flares hintereinander oder anders ausgedrueckt, dem M3.2 um 07.52 UTC folgte ja 08.31 UTC noch ein langer M3.9 ebenfalls aus 501, da besteht doch berechtigte Hoffnung, dass es fuer uns vielleicht doch noch reicht. (zumindest fuer den Norden von Mitteleuropa)

Gruss Heiko