MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING *LINK*

[Thomas Sävert]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

WARNING ISSUED: 17:30 UTC, 24 OCTOBER 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 25 OCTOBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 24-25 OCTOBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 24 - 26 OCTOBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 50, 40, 40, 20 (24 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH TO SOUTHERN WYOMING AND
POSSIBLY NORTHERN COLORADO TO NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN IOWA TO ILLINOIS TO
INDIANA AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN
VIRGINIA TO MARYLAND. WHETHER THESE CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE STATE OF THE SPACE WEATHER DISTURBANCE BY THE TIME NORTH AMERICA REACHES DARKNESS. THE DISTURBANCE MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY THEN.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN FRANCE TO BELGIUM TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND
TO LITHUANIA TO LATVIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA. EUROPEAN REGIONS ARE MUCH BETTER LOCATED TO OBSERVE PERIODS OF STRONG ACTIVITY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE.

NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN (PARTICULARLY SOUTHEASTERN) REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

The impact of an anticipated coronal mass ejection has elevated levels
of auroral activity to storm sporadic levels. Periods of minor to major auroral storming should result in visible periods of auroral activity over widespread middle latitude regions. The best locations to observe activity will be northern Russia and Europe. Although conditions are not yet favorable for intense storming, this disturbance may have the potential to produce
periods of respectable auroral activity.

There is a fair chance North American observers will catch the tail-end of the disturbance after darkness falls. It is still too early to be able to establish firm predictions on the duration or intensity of activity, particularly as far as 12 hours into the future. We recommend observers pay attention to space weather conditions by visity sites such as:
www.sec.noaa.gov or www.spacew.com for updated information.

This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
25 October. It will then be updated, downgraded to a watch or allowed to expire altogether. It is probable it will be downgraded to a watch. There are other disturbances enroute to the Earth that could prolong storm-level activity for the next 48 to 72 hours. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

** End of Warning **