MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH (STD)

[Ulrich Rieth]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 21:55 UTC, 13 OCTOBER 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 15 OCTOBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 13 OCTOBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 13 - 15 OCTOBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 25, 15, 15 (13 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 36 TO 72 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEW YORK STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

IRELAND TO UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME NORTHERN

GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO LATVIA TO ESTONIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTH EASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE

PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Auroral activity is beginning to intensify following the arrival of the
leading edge of a coronal hole based disturbance. Periods of moderately
strong substorming are expected to occur over the next 24 to 36 hours that
may become visible over some dark sky middle latitude locations, despite the
near full phase of the moon.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
15 October. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

** End of Watch **