MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

[Thomas Sävert]

Hier das fällige Update:

Gruß, Thomas Sävert

http://www.naturgewalten.de/aurora.htm

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Upgraded: 20:10 UTC on 21 January 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 23 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 21-22 JANUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 21-23 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 70, 40, 20, 12 (21 - 24 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12-18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18-36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO UTAH TO COLORADO TO
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO ARKANSAS TO TENNESSEE TO SOUTH
CAROLINA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

NORTHERN SPAIN AND PORTUGAL TO SOUTHERN FRANCE TO ITALY TO ROMANIA TO
UKRAIN TO SOUTHERN RUSSIA.

SYNOPSIS...

The arrival of a fairly strong interplanetary coronal mass ejection
(ICME) disturbance has prompted the upgrade of the mid-latitude aurora watch
to a mid-latitude aurora warning. Periods of moderate to strong auroral
storming could be oberved over the next 12 to 36 hours that should become
visible over widespread mid-latitude regions. There is also a slight chance
some activity may become visible into the low latitudes. A low latitude
aurora watch is being issued as well.

This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
23 January. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of AstroAlert **