MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH (ISSUED 21.07.04)

[PeterKuklok]

Hier etwas verspätet der STD-WATCH:

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 06:45 UTC, 21 JULY 2004

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RESENT AT 04:00 UTC ON 22 JULY

VALID BEGINNING AT: 21:00 UTC ON 22 JULY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 24 JULY

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: 23 JULY 14:00 UTC, +/- SEVERAL HOURS

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 23 JULY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 23-24 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 12, 25, 15, 20 (22 JULY - 25 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE TO VERY LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO TO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY
SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE TO SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO DENMARK AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN REACHES OF
GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

Effects of a coronal mass ejection following the major class M8.6 solar
flare of 20 July are expected to impact the Earth sometime on 23 July. The
impact is not expected to be particularly strong, but could be sufficient to
drive periods of moderate auroral activity over some dark-sky middle latitude
locations. The active sunspot region that produced this activity is capable
of producing additional strong activity.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
24 July. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Watch **

[PeterKuklok]

Update:

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 10:30 UTC, 22 July 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 24 JULY

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: IN-PROGRESS

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 22-23 JULY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 22-24 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 20, 20, 12 (22 JULY - 25 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE TO VERY LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO TO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY
SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE TO SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO DENMARK AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN REACHES OF
GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

A solar wind shock has been detected by the ACE spacecraft near 09:55 UTC
on 22 July. Auroral activity is expected to intensify over the next 12 to 24
hours and may become visible over some dark-sky middle latitude locations.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
24 July. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Watch **
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