MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING (updated 10.11.04)

[Ulrich Rieth]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Updated: 14:00 UTC on 10 November 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 23:00 UTC (4 pm EST) ON 10 NOVEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 12 NOVEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 11 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 10-12 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 50, 50, 25, 15 (10 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12-18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18-24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

NORTHERN OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN
MISSOURI TO ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

NORTHERN FRANCE TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND TO BELARUS TO CENTRAL
RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF
ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Another coronal mass ejection is due to impact the Earth after
approximtaely 18:00 to 21:00 UTC on 10 November. More likely, it will arrive
during the early UTC hours of 11 November (later tonight for North American
observers). After it arrives, periods of auroral storming are expected to
resume. Although there is a chance for a resumption in strong storm activity,
we do not expect this disturbance will be as strong as in previous days.

This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
12 November. It will then be updated, downgraded to a watch or allowed to
expire altogether. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Warning **