MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING (23:10UTC,04/07/26)

[Ulrich Rieth]

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH UPGRADED TO A WARNING
Updated: 23:10 UTC on 26 July 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 27 JULY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 27 JULY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 27-28 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 70, 30, 15, 15 (27 JULY - 30 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

NORTHERN OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN
MISSOURI TO ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

NORTHERN FRANCE TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND TO BELARUS TO CENTRAL
RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF
ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

The anticipated coronal mass ejection noted in the Watch has arrived at
22:50 UTC. Major to severe auroral storming is expected to commence within
the next several hours. There is a good chance auroral activity will once
again be visible across many middle latitude regions.

This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
27 July. It will then be updated, downgraded to a watch or allowed to
expire altogether. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Warning **
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[Ulrich Rieth]

LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 03:20 UTC 27 July 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 12:00 UTC (8 am EDT) ON 27 JULY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 27 JULY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 27 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 70, 30, 15, 15 (27 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM LOW LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS PERSIST)

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NEVADA TO SOUTHERN UTAH AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
NORTHERN ARIZONA TO SOUTHERN COLORADO AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO TO OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF TEXAS TO
ARKANSAS TO TENNESSEE TO NORTH CAROLINA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

FRANCE TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO CZECH REPUBLIC TO SOUTHERN POLAND TO
NORTHERN UKRAINE TO SOUTHERN BELARUS TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

NEW ZEALAND TO CENTRAL AUSTRALIA TO SOUTHERN ARGENTINA TO SOUTHERN CHILE
TO SOUTH AFRICA.

SYNOPSIS...

A strong solar disturbance impacted the Earth near 22:50 UTC on 26 July.
Although the disturbance is still relatively young, there is a chance
activity could intensify to levels capable of being observed from some low
latitude regions. At the present time, the activity is remaining confined to
the high and middle latitude regions. Intensification, if it occurs, could
result in further equatorward expansion of the auroral ovals and permit
observations from the lower latitudes. Low latitude auroral activity may be
dominantly red in color. As a result, a dark sky and clear view of the
northern horizon (for nothern hemisphere observers) or southern horizon (for
southern hemisphere observers) will be paramount.

This warning will remain valid through 12:00 UTC (8 am EDT) on
27 July. It will then be updated or allowed to expire altogether. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Watch **
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[Norbert Bläsner, Dresden]

ist es möglich, dass wir auch heute Abend noch PL in Dtl. sehen können?
Der Impact war zwar zu einen guiten Zeitpunkt, aber so richtig in Schwung kam der Substorm ja erst jetzt, kann der bis heute Abend anhalten? In den vergangenen Tagen war ja manchmal auch mehr als 24 h später fast die höchste Aktivität zu messen? ICh glaub zwar net dran...außerem ist es seit 24 Stunden fast mit Wolken zu...aber gibt es Hoffnung...
und das mit den PL haben wir ja toll zu deinem Geburtstag organisiert

[Heiko Rodde]

judihui - in nordamerika geht zur zeit die post aber wieder maechtig ab
das haette bei uns auch ne richtig dicke show gegeben - daumen druecken - vielleicht haelts ja bis heute abend noch an - wobei es wohl puenktlich zum eindunkeln abflauen wird .............


gruss heiko