mit etwas glueck gibts kommende nacht wieder was zu sehen -

[Heiko Rodde]

vorhersage vom std zum 2.2 von gestern:

Event #64 - 23 July 2004


Issued: 07:35 UTC, 24 July 2004

SOURCE EVENT

Class M2.2 Flare from Region 10652 on 23 July 2004
Type II: None reported
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: ~700 km/s

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 10:00 UTC on 25 July to 15:00 UTC on 26 July
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 23:00 UTC on 25 July (7:00 pm EDT on 25 July)
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 4


Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD





EVENT #64 NOTES:

As has been dominantly the norm for much of the activity originating from Region 10652, this event is very complex. It involved several near-simultaneous complex coronal mass ejections that are virtually impossible to realistically model. As a result, there is considerable uncertainty in these predictions. The actual impact time may vary substantially from the preferred time given above.



These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.


gruss heiko