MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH (21:30 UTC, 16 JULY )

[Ulrich Rieth]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 21:30 UTC, 16 JULY 2004

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 18 JULY

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: IN-PROGRESS

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 17 JULY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 16-18 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 20, 15, 15 (17 JULY - 20 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO TO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE TO
SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO DENMARK AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN REACHES
OF GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

A relatively weak coronal mass ejection has been observed passing
the ACE spacecraft near 21:06 UTC on 16 July. A strong southward
turning of the interplanetary magnetic field has been associated with
the arrival of this disturbance. The arrival of this disturbance could
result in intensified levels of auroral activity during the next 12 to
24 hours. Many middle latitudes may spot periods of enhanced activity
during this time. Although nothing significant is anticipated at this
time, there should be sufficient magnetospheric convection to produce
occasional moderate intensity substorms near the local midnight
sectors.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on 18
July. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For
real-time plots of current activity, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Watch **

[Thomas Sävert]

Bin und bleibe sehr skeptisch für heute Nacht, lasse mich aber gern eines besseren belehren...

Gruß, Thomas Sävert