Vorhersage zum CME (vom STD)

[Heiko Rodde]

Event #58 - 20 January 2004
Issued: 04:00 UTC, 21January 2004

SOURCE EVENT

Multiple Events in Region 540 on 20 January 2004
Type II: No Type II early in UTC day, 952 km/sec at 07:39 UTC
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: 874 km/s

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 21:00 UTC on 21 January to 18:00 UTC on 22 January
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 03:00 UTC on 22 January (10:00 pm EST on 21 January)
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 5

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
NORTHWARD


EVENT #58 NOTES:

This event was associated with a well-defined full-halo coronal mass ejection. Low energy proton densities are also increasing. Confidence is high that this event will impact the Earth. This disturbance could produce periods of minor to major geomagnetic storm conditions, with a slight chance of isolated severe storming during the local evening and night hours .
These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.