M2.26@1728 mit CME

[PeterKuklok]

...sieht wieder sehr nach Full-Halo aus. TypeII 717km/s

Grüße
Peter

PS: muss jetzt erstmal mein blaues Fell trocken föhnen

[PeterKuklok]

Event #64 - 23 July 2004
Issued: 07:35 UTC, 24 July 2004

SOURCE EVENT

Class M2.2 Flare from Region 10652 on 23 July 2004
Type II: None reported
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: ~700 km/s

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 10:00 UTC on 25 July to 15:00 UTC on 26 July
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 23:00 UTC on 25 July (7:00 pm EDT on 25 July)
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 4

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD


EVENT #64 NOTES:

As has been dominantly the norm for much of the activity originating from Region 10652, this event is very complex. It involved several near-simultaneous complex coronal mass ejections that are virtually impossible to realistically model. As a result, there is considerable uncertainty in these predictions. The actual impact time may vary substantially from the preferred time given above.

Quelle: http://solar.spacew.com/cme/

[Sebastian Lilienthal]

Hallo Alle,

der Event war wirklich mit einem schönen CME verknüpft - vielleicht sogar der bisher stärkste aus 10652.



Mal sehen für was der reicht

Grüße,

Sebastian

[Bernhard Dorner]

Der Vollständigkeit halber auch diese Einschätzung:

23 July 2004, 1728 UT: Exercise #549* ----run: 23 July 2004.
(Time since last event: ~1 day, 17 hrs)

Our ensemble's prediction window is indicated as follows:
STOA: Shock will arrive 0209 UT, 26 July 2004; TT=56h41m; Ma=2.5.
STOA-2: Shock will arrive 0545 UT, 26 July 2004; TT= 60.3hr; Ma=1.9.
ISPM: Shock will arrive 2229 UT, 25 July 2004; TT=53h01m; SSI=0.8.
HAFv2: Shock will arrive 1200 UT, 25 July 2004; SSI=0.24; deleta
momentum flux = 3.7 nPa. Eastern limb of this shock will reach Mercury at
about 0000 UT. Also (independent of this event), a CIR will hit Mars at 1500 UT, 25 July.

Input for models: STOA, STOA-2, ISPM, and HAFv.2 are:
# Date Start Time Vs Tau Location Vsw
549* 23 July 1728 UT 1050 km/s 30m N03W05 500 km/sec

GENERAL DESCRIPTION: An M2.2/? flare took place at ~N03W05 in AR0652. It was observed by GOES-12/XRA at 1707-1728-1735 UT. No H-alpha report was made, hence there is no optical ( ?) classification. Also, no Type II metric burst was observed, so we will base our ensemble predictions on the 'full' halo CME reported by the SOHO/LASCO Operations Scientist, Guillermo Stenborg, and the NOAA Forecaster, Mike Weaver. A preliminary estimate of the halo CME's Vcme, made by the latter, was 700 km/sec in the plane-of-sky from C2 imagery at about 1635 UT. The former reported a "poor measurement" of 990 km/sec at PA = 270 deg from C3 imagery at 1642 UT. For our purposes, as discussed many times, we will assume (hence our asterisk: 549*) that the shock speed above the flare site at CM is Vs = 1.5x700 = 1030 km/sec. Several CMEs, observed earlier, one of them possibly from a C1 flare (from the same region) at 1609 UT (soft X-ray max), combined to make this a complex 'full' halo CME from the M2.2 flare. This C1 flare was accompanied by a metric Type II radio burst at 1600 UT (75 MHz) to 1608 UT (25 MHz) with an estimated shock speed in the low corona of 717 km/sec. We do not use this event as the genesis of a potential geoeffective shock and CME (ICME) because of the complex events from the same region that continued and culminated with the M2.2 flare. ACE/SWEPAM indicates a background solar wind speed, Vsw = 500 km/sec. ACE/EPAM/SIS indicate fluctuating high proton fluxes due, very possibly, to the connection and disconnection of the oncoming shock (from the FF#548* shock?) between the spacecraft and the particle acceleration zones on that shock....the so-called COBpoint (Connection with OBserver points).

Weitere Infos: http://gse2.gi.alaska.edu/recent/