Neuer Flare unterwegs?

[gabyklüber]

Hallo,
ist da schon was neues unterwegs das uns am 16/17 trifft?
lg Gaby

[Günther Strauch]

Hallo Gaby,

NOAA schreibt:

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (15 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (16 Sep).

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/30
Minor Storm 20/05/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01

Nach diesem Modell würde sich etwas für den 16.9. entwickeln:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/

Gruß
Günther

[Günther Strauch]

spaceweather.com schreibt dazu:

INCOMING CME: Another CME is en route to Earth. It was launched in our direction three days ago by the eruption of a magnetic filament near the center of the solar disk. The impact won't be as effective as the double-whammy of Sept. 12th, described below. Nevertheless, NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Sept. 16th when the CME arrives. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras. Aurora alerts: text, voice

[Günther Strauch]

spaceweather.com schreibt heute:

The impact won't be as effective as the double-blow Earth experienced on Sept. 12th, when two CMEs hit in less than 24 hours. Nevertheless, NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Sept. 17th when the CME arrives. (Note: Yesterday we wrote that the CME would arrive on Sept. 16th, however, a revised analysis of its speed suggests a later arrival.) High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

[gabyklüber]

Danke sehr für die fleißigen Infos