STD - Bericht - X 8.3 - 02.November *LINK*

[Heiko]

Event #51 - 02 November 2003
Issued: 12:50 UTC, 02 November 2003

SOURCE EVENT

Class X8.37 Flare in Region 486 at 17:25 UTC on 02 November 2003
Type II: 1691 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: ~ 1950 km/sec (West)

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 21:00 UTC on 03 November to 14:00 UTC on 04 November
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 07:00 UTC, 04 November 2003 (2 am EST on 04 November)
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 7

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
NORTHWARD

IMPORTANT TIME OF ARRIVAL NOTICE FOR NORTH AMERICANS
The preferred time of arrival is MONDAY NIGHT (before you go to bed), near or after local MIDNIGHT.

EVENT #51 NOTES:

The time of arrival of this disturbance is less certain than previous predictions because it is not possible to accurately ascertain the velocity profile of the shock front. Most models agree on a time of arrival near 07:00 UTC on 04 November. But there is a possible error of at least plus or minus several hours for this event. This event has the potential to produce minor to severe geomagnetic and auroral storm conditions on 04 November. This will probably be the last coronal mass ejection that proves to be geoeffective before active solar Region 486 moves out of range. Also note that this event is expected to canibalize another earlier and weaker coronal mass ejection which may have had a small Earthward-directed component from Region 486.
These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.

Gruss Heiko