STD - Chances for a Record-Setting "Northern Light

[Peter Kuklok]

A s t r o A l e r t

Sun-Earth Alert

Solar Terrestrial Dispatch

http://www.spacew.com

Images of this event are available at:

http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html

25 October 2003

CHANCES FOR A RECORD-SETTING "NORTHERN LIGHTS" SHOW

It is remarkable how often the news media take scattered facts, throw
them together incorrectly and then claim authenticity. Such was the case in
abundance for the space weather storm of 24 October. Media reports that this
storm would be a "perfect storm" or the "once in a 100 year event" were
shamefully inaccurate.

An important scientific paper published by a respected researcher in
space physics and publicized recently by NASA was probably the source of the
confusion. The paper discussed conditions around the largest geomagnetic
storm on historic record - the event of 1-2 September 1859. The media
incorrectly thought that current solar activity would produce a storm as
large as the 1859 event. To our knowledge, no professional space weather
organization made such a claim. Nevertheless, the remarkable nature of this
rumor quickly spread through the media until it was as horribly distorted as
looking through a broken mirror. The result of this mass confusion was an
unfounded and popular belief within the public community that a hugely
powerful display of northern lights would appear around the world. It is,
perhaps fittingly ironic, that Mother Nature refused to comply. We hope this
will help clear up the mass confusion surrounding the event of 24 October.

Initial conditions suggested the activity of 24 October could grow into
a respectable disturbance capable of producing visible northern lights into
the middle latitudes (yet nothing even close to the 1859 storm was ever
anticipated). And in fact, observations of activity into northern Germany and
other locales were received soon after the diturbance arrived (a result of
the stress placed upon the Earth's magnetosphere by strong solar wind
pressure). But the disturbance quickly shut off the valves and kept them shut
through to the end, disappointing many.

The next solar disturbance from recent days' coronal mass ejection
activity could arrive over the next 24 hours. It is not expected to be a
terribly strong disturbance. The mass from this CME was directed well away
from the Earth, but a component of that disturbance was detected travelling
Earthward. As a result, we should see a "glancing blow". This could
invigorate levels of auroral activity once again on 25 and 26 October.
Observers in North America may want to peek at the skies during the local
evening hours of Saturday, 25 October. Given how unproductive the event of 24
October was, it might not be too difficult for this next anticipated
disturbance to exceed the productivity of the 24 October event. Observers are
encouraged to keep an eye on conditions.

Sunspot complex 486 is continuing to spawn less energetic solar flares
and associated coronal mass ejections. It is also continuing to rotate into a
better radial alignment with the Earth. Nevertheless, most (if not all) of
the coronal mass ejections observed recently have not appeared to contain any
Earthward-directed components.

Either Region 486 or the other large sunspot complex (Region 484) could
produce additional significant solar flare activity over the coming days.
That activity could result in disturbances capable of producing visible
auroral activity over widespread middle latitude regions.

Don't expect a storm the size of the record-setting 1859 event. Although
these active regions perhaps possess the capability of spawning such a storm,
the odds of it actually occurring are very remote.

** End of the AstroAlert Bulletin **