STD: MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

[Bernhard Dorner]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 21:35 UTC, 15 AUGUST 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) ON 17 AUGUST

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 15-16 AUGUST (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 15-17 AUGUST

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 15, 12, 12 (16 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW TO MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 12 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

WASHINGTON STATE TO IDAHO TO NORTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN

IOWA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO NORTHERN OHIO TO

PENNSYLVANIA TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW JERSEY.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

ENGLAND TO NORTHERN BELGIUM TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO

LITHUANIA TO SOUTHERN LATVIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. NEW ZELAND AND EXTREME

SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A mild interplanetary shock was observed impacting the near at 18:55 UTC
on 15 August (2:55 pm EDT). Although fairly mild, the disturbance has
elevated solar wind velocities to respectable values near 600 km/sec and has
maintained a minor southward configuration of the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF), which should help maintain or slightly intensify levels of
auroral substorm activity. Substorms are currently occurring over extreme
northern Europe and northern Russia. Substorming may become intense enough
over the coming hours to result in visible sightings of activity over some
dark-sky middle latitude regions.

This watch will remain valid through 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 17 August.
It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

A FREE trial of the space weather "SWIM" software package is now
available at: http://www.spacew.com/swim. Use it to monitor current
conditions. It may also be used to monitor any image resource you find on the
Internet (including almost any type of 'cam' or "pictures of the day" you
can find).

** End of Watch **

[Ulrich Rieth]

...drin.
Diese soll kurz vor 12 UTC an der Erde eintreffen.
Da die Berechnungen wohl von heute/gestern sind, müssten die Computer eigentlich schon registriert haben, dass da etwas angekommen ist.
Entweder diese Schockfront ist die eines Coronal Holes oder aber die Comps des GI sind doch noch auf einem alten Stand gewesen.
Gruß

Ulrich

[Peter Kuklok]

Hallo Ulrich,

> Entweder diese Schockfront ist die eines Coronal Holes oder aber
> die Comps des GI sind doch noch auf einem alten Stand gewesen.

letzteres dürfte der Fall sein.
Ein CH kann das auf gar keinen Fall sein, sowas müsste anders dargestellt werden. Schließlich richtet sich der CH-Stream ja gerade nach den IMF-Feldlinien und durchpflügt sie nicht.

Grüße
Peter