MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

[Ulrich Rieth]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 00:25 UTC, 02 AUGUST 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) ON 02 AUGUST

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 02 AUGUST (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 02 AUGUST

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 22, 14, 12, 12 (02 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE AFTER MOONRISE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

WASHINGTON STATE TO IDAHO TO NORTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO NEW YORK STATE TO MASSACHUSETTS.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

CENTRAL ENGLAND TO SOUTHERN DENMARK AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN GERMANY

TO NORTHERN COASTAL REGIONS OF THE BALTIC SEA (EXTREME NORTHERN POLAND,

LITHUANIA, LATVIA ESTONIA) TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

SYNOPSIS...

An unexpected interplanetary shock impacted the Earth near 23:11 UTC on
01 August (7:11 pm EDT). This disturbance has thus far been associated with
variable and gradually strengthening interplanetary magnetic fields (IMFs)
that may become capable of producing periods of moderately strong auroral
activity over high and some dark-sky middle latitude locations during the
next 12 to 18 hours. Observers are encouraged to keep a close eye on
conditions through the next 18 hours.

This watch will remain valid through 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 02 August.
It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

A FREE trial of the space weather "SWIM" software package is now
available at: http://www.spacew.com/swim. Use it to monitor current
conditions. It may also be used to monitor any image resource you find on the
Internet (including almost any type of 'cam' or "pictures of the day" you
can find).

** End of Watch **