neue CME Prognosen online...

[Ulrich Rieth]

http://solar.spacew.com/cme/

Event #25 - 19 July 2002
Issued: 03:30 UTC, 19 July 2002

SOURCE EVENT
(See Notes)

17 and 18 July 2002

Event 1: M8.5/1B Flare and CME in Active Region 10030 - near N21 W17 at 07:13 UTC on 17 July
Event 2: X1.8 /2B Flare and CME in Active Region 10030 - near N19 W30 at 07:44 UTC on 18 July
Type II: Estimated near 700 km/sec on 17 July (event 1)
Type II: Estimated near 998 km/sec on 18 July (event 2)
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: near 800 km/sec on 17 July (1)
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: near 1090 km/sec on 18 July (2)

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 15:00 UTC on 19 July to 18:00 UTC on 20 July
Preferred Predicted Impact Time, 1st Event: 02:00 UTC, 20 July 2002 (1)
Preferred Predicted Impact Time, 2nd Event: 04:00 UTC, 20 July 2002 (2)
Estimated Shock Strength (0: Weakest, 9=Strongest): 4 (1st event)
Estimated Shock Strength (0: Weakest, 9=Strongest): 5 (2nd event)

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
NORTHWARD (possible complex behavior after impact)

EVENT #25 NOTES:

This is a potentially complex situation. These two events have the potential to merge into a single disturbance before impacting the Earth. The unknowns are too large to state with any certainty that the CME associated with the M8.5 event will impact before the X1.8 event. We have combined predictions above under the assumption that each disturbance travels an independent path to the Earth. However, this is not likely going to happen. The second disturbance will probably interact with the first and may experience some acceleration travelling through the higher velocity wake of the first disturbance. It therefore stands a good chance of overtaking the first disturbance before it impacts the Earth. The impact time estimates for these two disturbances are therefore probably in error. Whether we see one shock (the second having overtook the first) or two shocks (if the second disturbance doesn't travel fast enough to overtake the first) is something that will be interesting to watch.

[Wolfgang Dzieran]

In der Tat ein interessantes Doppelereignis. Mal sehen, ob es noch zu einer zweiten Schockwelle kommt, oder ob die zweite die erste "angeschoben" hat, weil ja wohl doch deutlich schneller als erwartet angekommen?

Wolfgang
aus Bad Lippspringe

[Ulrich Rieth]

nicht überholt, siehe Oben *o.T.*