LAST UPDATE: 16 JULY 2002, 20:30 UTC (STD)

[Ulrich Rieth]

Der angesprochene Watch ist scheinbar noch nicht online.

LAST UPDATE: 16 JULY 2002, 20:30 UTC (4:30 pm EDT 16 July):

Awaiting the impact of the CME associated with the X3 solar flare of 15
July... Impact assessment is available at: http://www.spacew.com/cme. A
middle latitude auroral activity Watch has been issued for 17 through 19
July.

A minor southward turning of the IMF over the last few hours may result in a
few substorm intervals over high latitude regions over the next several
hours.

[Ulrich Rieth]

http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html

[Peter Kuklok]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 19:10 UTC, 16 JULY 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: 12:00 UTC 17 JULY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) ON 19 JULY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 17 - 18 JULY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 17 - 19 JULY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 24, 35, 15, 12 (17 JULY - 20 JULY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 12 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO WYOMING TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO IOWA TO

ILLINOIS TO INDIANA TO OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW JERSEY.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

IRELAND TO SOUTHERN ENGLAND TO NORTHERN BELGIUM TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO

NORTH-CENTRAL POLAND TO NORTHERN BELARUS TO NORTHERN RUSSIA (ROUGHLY
NORTH

OF A LINE FROM TVER TO YAROSLAVL TO SYKTYVKAR TO CENTRAL SIBERA). NEW

ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS
OF

ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A strong solar flare on 15 July has produced an Earthward directed
coronal mass ejection. This disturbance is expected to impact the Earth
and produce enhanced periods of auroral activity later on 17 July and
lingering through 18 July. Although this disturbance may not be a
particularly significant storm-bearing disturbance, it has the potential of
producing periods of substantially enhanced auroral activity over the high
and perhaps widespread middle latitude regions. Observers over North America
are encouraged to begin watching the sky and space weather conditions during
the local evening and early morning hours of 17 and 18 July. Impact of the
coronal mass ejection could occur anytime after the mid UTC day of 17 July
(8
am EDT on 17 July). For current conditions, please visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html (a link at the bottom of this page
provides current up-to-date information).

The active sunspot complex that was associated with this earthward
directed CME may produce additional earthward directed CMEs over the coming
days.

This watch will remain valid through 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 19 July.
It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated information,
visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://solar.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study
and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

A FREE trial of the space weather "SWIM" software package is now
available at: http://www.spacew.com/swim. Use it to monitor current
conditions. It may also be used to monitor any image resource you find on
the
Internet (including almost any type of 'cam' or "pictures of the day" you
can find).

** End of the AstroAlert Bulletin **