"Frühe Aurora Warnung" - Typ 1.2 für 14./15.05.05

[Ulrich Rieth]

Hallo!

Nach aktueller Datenlage (inkl. des ersten SOHO LASCO C3 Frames) ist es Zeit gemäß der AKM-Forum Warnkriterien (siehe http://www.sam-europe.de/warnindex.html) eine Warnung gemäß Typ 1.2 auszugeben.

1.2 frühe Warnung - early Warning
Bei einem starken Ereignis (major flare + CME) aus der Sonnenmitte und SOHO einen starken haloförmigen CME zeigt. Beispiel: Bastille-Event.

Nach den ersten Bildern und dem Type II Sweep zu urteilen, dürfte der gerade ausgeschleuderte CME wieder einer der schnellen Sorte sein.
Eine Ankunft innerhalb der nächsten 24-30 Stunden ist sicher im Bereich des Möglichen.
Bei einer "Abschusszeit" von heute 16:13 UTC liegt das garnicht einmal so ungünstig, nämlich morgen Abend passend zum dunkel werden. Aber selbst wenn er langsamer ist, als gedacht, müsste er immer noch morgen im Laufe der Nacht ankommen. Das Potential für einen starken geomagnetischen Sturm halte ich für sehr groß. Allerdings glaube ich nicht unbedingt, dass es auch bis Sonntagabend durchgehen wird, außer der CME ist sehr langsam. Das hätte aber wiederum eine Reduktion des Sturmpotentials zur Folge.
Die Warnung gilt daher primär bei einem frühen Impakt für den Abend des 14.05.2005 und die komplette Nacht vom 14. auf den 15.05.2005.
Trotz der zu erwarten ungünstigen Wetterbedingungen, sollte man also morgen Abend mit geladenen Akkus und ausreichend Filmmaterial bzw. leeren Chips bereit stehen.
Ansonsten bleibt mal wieder nur warten und Wolken vertreiben.
Klaren Himmel!

Ulrich

[Peter Wloch]

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

>>>>Updated 2005 May 13 2210 UTC<<<<<

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was high.

Region 759 (N12E06) produced an M8/2b flare at 13/1657 UTC.
The flare was associated with significant radio output that included type II/IV sweeps and a 2900 sfu burst at 2695 MHz.
This event was also associated with an apparent Earth-directed CME.

Region 758 (S09W81) only managed to generate a few minor flares over the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Most activity is expected to occur in Regions 758 and
759.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is enhanced from the M8 flare
discussed in Part IA but has not yet crossed the 10 pfu event
threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours.

Storm conditions are possible on 15 and 16 May due to the CME
associated with the M8 flare in Region 759.

There is a chance that the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could surpass the 10 pfu event threshold on 14 May due to the same major event.

III. Event Probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 15/10/05
Proton 30/20/10
PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 May 126
Predicted 14 May-16 May 120/110/100
90 Day Mean 13 May 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 013/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 025/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 012/015-050/075-030/040

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor storm 10/50/50
Major-severe storm 05/30/30
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor storm 10/60/60
Major-severe storm 05/30/30

[Lutz Schenk]

Hi Zusammen,

der STD hat auch schon seine Vorhersage parat:

http://www.spacew.com/cme/index.html

Event #77 - 13 May 2005

Issued: 22:55 UTC, 13 May 2005

SOURCE EVENT

M8.0/2B Proton Flare from Region 10759 on 13 May 2005
Type II: 1349 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: Uncertain

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 23:00 UTC on 14 May to 06:00 UTC on 16 May
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 10:00 UTC on 15 May (6:00 am EDT on 15 May)
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 5

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD

EVENT #77 NOTES:

Region 10759 spawned a major class M8 flare today accompanied by a weak proton enhancement and strong radio emissions. The coronal mass ejection from this event appears (based on preliminary LASCO data) to be fairly squarely Earthward-directed. As a result, the Earth has a higher probability of passing through an influential magnetic cloud associated with the ejected solar plasma. Most forecast centers are anticipating a major geomagnetic storm on 15 and 16 May. We do not differ. This event has the potential to be quite influential and could even produce periods of severe geomagnetic storm conditions (perhaps brief K-indices of 7 or higher) after it arrives. Our arrival estimate is based on Type II shock velocity estimates, which are notoriously less reliable than plane of sky measurements from LASCO. At the time of this writing, there was insufficient LASCO data to determine plane of sky velocities. Thus, the Type II velocity estimates have been used instead. This has resulted in a widening of the impact window and less certainty regarding the precise impact time.



These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.

Ich befürchte das es mehr oder weniger genau so kommt, also alles andere als günstig für uns. Irdisches Wetter mal aussen vor.

Wenn die Geschichte wie Ulrich schon schrieb im Fenster 24-30h (wobei ich an 24h nicht so ganz glauben mag) wären selbst 30h schon sehr knapp.
OK, das wäre ein Impact gegen 22Z, also 0MESZ, das könnte gerade noch so was werden.

Liegt die Sache eher so gegen Sonntag früh, wäre es ein sehr ungünstiges Timing. Also bleibt nur auf 20 oder 40h hoffen ;-)

Aber es gibt ja noch etwas Hoffnung, das durch die noch nicht mögliche weitere Lasco-Analyse sich das Bild noch etwas verschiebt, aber wenn dann wohl auch nicht sehr viel.

Viele Grüße,

Lutz

[Peter Wloch]

Hier noch ein kleines Filmchen von dem M8 Flare(268kb):

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/protons/ ... 1609_m.mpg

[Ralf Pitscheneder]

Hallo zusammen,

hier noch die middle latitude Warnung vom STD:

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Issued: 05:05 UTC on 14 May 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC 15 MAY 2005
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 16 MAY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 15 MAY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 15-16 MAY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 14, 70, 30, 12 (14 - 17 MAY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12-18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18-24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR PRIOR TO LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO
NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

CENTRAL FRANCE TO NORTHERN SWITZERLAND TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO THE CZECH
REPUBLIC TO POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.

NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO SPOT PERIODS
OF ACTIVITY IF SUITABLE STORM CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE DURING DARKNESS.

SYNOPSIS...

A major class M8.0 solar flare on 13 May has been associated with a
coronal mass ejection that appears to be strongly Earthward-directed. A major
geomagnetic and auroral storm is expected to materialize on 15 May when the
CME impacts the Earth. Periods of moderate to strong auroral storm conditions
could be observed with this disturbance. Many middle latitude observations of
activity should be possible after the disturbance arrives. Impact is expected
sometime during the early to mid UTC hours of 15 May and the disturbance
should persist well into 16 May. For North American observers, the first
opportunity to observe activity may come as early as the very early morning
hours (pre-dawn) of 15 May. The next (slightly less favorable) opportunity
will be on the evening of 15 May, although depending on when the disturbance
arrives, storm conditions may be on the decline by the time darkness falls
over North America. Observers are encouraged to watch for activity. As we
approach the solar minimum, these opportunities to observe the "northern
lights" will diminish in frequency. This disturbance may have the potential
to produce fairly vigorous auroral storming for brief periods of time.

This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on
16 May. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Warning **
_______________________________________________

VLG
Ralf

[mike stammler]

jo prima .....

PL über dicken Wolken mit Dauerregen ..... da war mal wieder M***** aufgewacht ....

Aber das lässt ja hoffen, dass die Sonne nicht ganz schläft

Cu
Mike

[Norbert Bläsner, Dresden]

wer hat denn immer den schönen Nachtwetterbericht gehabt auf seine HP?? Dasd war immer sehr hilfreich....auch wenn meine Hoffnung ob ein paar Lücken getrübt ist...immerhin ist es nicht ganz chancenlos...

[Thorsten Schipmann]

Hallo Norbert,
Du meinst vermutlich Jürgen Vollmers Seite http://www.astrowetter.com/, da gibts auch ein das NOAA Satellitenbild "Europa aus dem All"

Gruß,
Thorsten

[Bernhard Dorner]

Hallo,

der Vollständigkeit halber noch der GSE-FF-Lauf:

Exercise #598: 13 May 2005, 1641 UT. Mailed: 13 May 2005
(Time since last Type II: ~1 day, 21 hrs)

Our ensemble's prediction estimate (Only HAFv.2 is available at this time) is indicated as follows:
HAFv2: Shock's western flank will arrive at L1 about 0600 UT, 15 May 2005. SSI = +0.3.3; delta(momentum flux) = 3.3 nPa. This event will be followed by a strong fast forward shock of a CIR at 1700 UT on 18 May. Western flank of the FF#598 shock is estimated to arrive at Mercury on 15 May 2005, 0000 UT, and at Mars on 14 May 2005, 1800 UT.

Please see the HAFv.2 movie at http://gse.gi.alaska.edu/recent/javascr ... movie.html>. Hit "2 AU", then "Start". If you are interested in the outer heliosphere, hit "10 AU", then "Start." [Allow time to load.]

Inputs for HAFv.2 solar wind model are:
FF# Date Start Time Vs Tau Location
598 13 May 1641 UT 1349 km/sec 3hr N12E11

GENERAL DESCRIPTION: An LDE flare, M8.0/2B, took place at N12E11 in AR0759. GOES-12/SXI observed it in soft X-ray imagery at 1618-1706-1727 UT, and Holloman saw it in H-alpha at 1631-1641-1946 UT. San Vito measured a metric Type II radio burst at 1641 UT (81 MHz) to 1652 UT (25 MHz) with an estimated coronal shock speed, Vs = 1349 km/sec. Sagamore Hill also reported the metric Type II at 1643 UT (no other information available) with an SEC alert-reported speed of 1171 km/sec. We will use the more conservatively-high speed with an assumed piston driving time, tau = 3 hr. Sagamore Hill also reported a Type IV radio burst, starting at 1641 UT with a frequency range from 153 to 25 MHz. The SEC forecaster estimated, from SOHO/LASCO coronagraph white light imagery, the preliminary speeds (from two available images) in the N and S of a full halo CME to be ~1000 km/sec. ACE/SWEPAM measured a background solar wind speed, Vsw ~ 530 km/sec at this writing. ACE/SIS observed a prompt sharp rise of >20 MeV protons.

Jetzt hätt ich zwar endlich mal wieder Zeit, dafür aber daheim keine Kamera und noch Wolken über dem Kopf. Aber wenns eh Vormittag wird...

Hiphiphurra
Bernhard

[Lutz Schenk]

Hi Zusammen,

im Epam zeigt sich wohl nun (0:35UT) die Einleitung des Anstiegs zur CME-Ankunft, welche aber für Mitteleuropa einfach zu spät ist.
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ace/EPAM_6h.html

Es bleibt nur noch die (schwache) Hoffnung, das etwas davon in der kommenden Nacht übrig bleibt.

Viele Grüße,

Lutz

[Lutz Schenk]

Hi nochmal zusammen,

bevor ich nun ins Bett falle, der Impact ist wohl wirklich nur noch eine Sache von Minuten bis 1/2 Stunde, aber es für uns definitiv zu spät :-(

Na ja, werden wir mal wieder ein halbes Jahr oder so drauf warten...

Viele Grüße,

Lutz