CME Prognose des STD online...starker aber chaotischer Schoc

[Ulrich Rieth]

Event #21 - 23 May 2002
Issued: 09:50 UTC, 23 May 2002

SOURCE EVENT

22 May 2002
C-Flare and complex CME in Active Region 9948 - near S19 W56 at 00:34 UTC
Type II: Undetermined
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: 1496 km/sec.

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 20:00 UTC on 22 May to 12:00 UTC on 23 May
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 03:00 UTC, 23 May 2002
Estimated Shock Strength (0: Weakest, 9=Strongest): 6

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD (Complex)

EVENT #21 NOTES:

This is expected to be a moderately strong disturbance with a complex and frequently chaotic imbedded magnetic field structure owing to the anticipated interaction of the primary high velocity CME from the southwest with possibly two other slower-moving coronal mass ejection disturbances. There is a chance periods of major to severe geomagnetic and auroral storming may be observed at times during this disturbance. However, the main bulk of activity is expected to remain confined to active to minor storm levels.

These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.