CME Vorhersage verfügbar...

[Ulrich Rieth]

...unter http://solar.spacew.com/cme/

Event #20 - 16 May 2002
Issued: 18:55 UTC, 16 May 2002

SOURCE EVENT

15 May 2002
Complex C-Flare in Active Region 9948 - near S20 E14 at 00:34 UTC
Type II: 420 km/sec.
Type IV confirmed.
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: 548 km/sec.

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 21:00 UTC on 18 May to 21:00 UTC on 19 May
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 08:00 UTC, 19 May 2002
Estimated Shock Strength (0: Weakest, 9=Strongest): 4

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD

EVENT #20 NOTES:

This is expected to be a minor disturbance impact. If the disturbance arrives earlier than expected (earlier on 18 May), the IMF may turn northward instead of initially southward as predicted. This disturbance will probably produce periods of minor geomagnetic and auroral storming over the high latitude regions. Periods of weak minor storm activity may also be observed over some middle latitude regions, particularly during the local night hours centered near midnight local time.

These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.

[wolfgang hamburg]

Hallo,

auch gerade gesehen!

So gut sieht das IMHO nicht aus, leider. Falls die wirklich erst So morgen gegen 11CEST hier aufschlägt, haben wir wohl nix davon.

Trotzdem weiter hoffend
wolfgang

[pit03]

Na das läst doch wieder hoffen. Eventuell ! *oT*