MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

[Peter Kuklok]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 05:45 UTC, 02 NOVEMBER 2002

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VALID BEGINNING AT: IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) ON 05 NOVEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 02 - 04 NOV (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 02 - 05 NOV

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 20, 20, 15 (02 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 - 48 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 48 - 72 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: POOR TO FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN OREGON TO IDAHO TO NORTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK SKY SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO

NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN TO CENTRAL UNITED KINGDOM TO THE NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO NORTHERN

GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO LITHUANIA TO LATVIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA MAY

ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

A well placed recurrent solar coronal hole is expected to elevate levels
of auroral activity over the next 2 to 3 days. It appears the Earth may
already be seeing the initial effects of the approach of the high velocity
solar wind stream from this anticipated disturbance. Conditions may therefore
soon become favorable for producing periods of enhanced auroral substorm
activity. Some substorming may be strong enough to be observed over more
widespread middle latitude regions.

This watch will remain valid through 19:00 UTC (2 pm EST) on
05 November. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

** End of Watch **