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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
WATCH ISSUED: 06:25 UTC, 07 JANUARY 2004
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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 08 JANUARY
PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: IN-PROGRESS
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 07 JANUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 07 - 08 JANUARY
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 35, 25, 20, 15 (07 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA TO
WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO VERMONT TO
MAINE.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN
FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA (VICTORIA).
SYNOPSIS...
Effects of a coronal mass ejection imbedded within a high velocity
coronal hole based solar wind stream has the potential to produce periods of
visible auroral activity over many dark-sky middle latitude regions during
the next 24 to 48 hours. No significant auroral storming is anticipated,
although some substorms have the potential to produce moderately strong
activity, even though the near full moon will obscure much of the activity.
This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on
08 January. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
** End of Watch **
MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH (07.01.04)
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