MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH (07.01.04)

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Ulrich Rieth

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH (07.01.04)

Beitrag von Ulrich Rieth » 7. Jan 2004, 11:20

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 06:25 UTC, 07 JANUARY 2004

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 08 JANUARY

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: IN-PROGRESS

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 07 JANUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 07 - 08 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 35, 25, 20, 15 (07 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA TO

WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO VERMONT TO

MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN

FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA (VICTORIA).

SYNOPSIS...

Effects of a coronal mass ejection imbedded within a high velocity
coronal hole based solar wind stream has the potential to produce periods of
visible auroral activity over many dark-sky middle latitude regions during
the next 24 to 48 hours. No significant auroral storming is anticipated,
although some substorms have the potential to produce moderately strong
activity, even though the near full moon will obscure much of the activity.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on
08 January. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

** End of Watch **


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